PERHAPS the biggest achievement of the low-cost airline revolution has been to make air travel relatively easy and accessible. The ease of jumping on an aircraft late on Friday afternoon and arriving in a foreign city several hours before the local bars shut has prompted millions of us to take at least one mini-break, romantic or otherwise, a year. But such a carefree approach to travel may have ended for good on Thursday with the extreme security measures imposed at airports in response to the heightened security threat.

British Airways was the big loser on Day 1 of the new regime, as £220 million was wiped off its market value. In comparison easyJet’s shares fell by only 2 per cent and Ryanair’s by 1.5 per cent. The brunt of the impact was borne by BA because its profile is higher and its biggest revenue earners are the transatlantic routes that the alleged terrorists appear to have targeted.

However, a decision to ban hand baggage permanently at UK airports may have a longer-lasting impact on the low-cost airlines. The problem with banning hand baggage at British airports is that it is likely to deter many of the weekend leisure customers that the low-cost carriers have grown up on. Marginal travellers may be more inclined to stay in the UK — or take the train or car — than risk flying by air and waiting around for baggage that is late or lost. In recent years the low-cost airlines have been encouraging people to travel with only hand baggage, as this speeds boarding and disembarking. Aircraft can be turned around fast and used to maximum efficiency.

This year Ryanair slapped extra charges for each item checked into the hold but increased its weight allowance for hand luggage to 10kg (22lb). EasyJet and BA followed suit, lifting all weight restrictions on hand luggage as long as bags were small enough to fit into the overhead lockers and could be lifted without assistance.

Ryanair said yesterday that it had no plans to change its baggage policy because it was not known how long the ban on hand luggage would be enforced. It is relaxing luggage charges for the time being.

Any prolonged ban will be a challenge to the business models of the low-cost airlines. Ryanair wants to halve airport queues and shave €30 million (£20 million) off costs by getting passengers to check in online and bring only hand luggage. Easyjet has also been encouraging online check-in as part of its efforts to increase its margins. If the restrictions are permanent, however, both airlines will have to reconsider.

The new measures are also likely to lead to higher costs for all three airlines. Although airport security and the scanning of bags is primarily an issue for the airport owner, the need for more employees and potentially more equipment will inevitably lead to higher airport charges.

Higher airport costs may be offset in part by increased sales of in-flight drinks and snacks. Passengers are banned from bringing liquids on board, and Ryanair and easyJet, which charge for snacks and drinks, will be able to boost margins this way.

Fundamentally, however, the airlines are in good shape to withstand this shock, even BA, which is handicapped by the absence of Martin George, its commercial director.

British Airways does seem to find it hard to avoid trouble during its peak season. This is the third summer in a row that has presented problems, although this time, at least, the airline could hardly be blamed.

The Gate Gourmet dispute of last year cost the airline about £40 million, even though the peak disruption lasted only slightly more than two days. On that basis, estimating the financial impact of two days’ disruption at £40 million looks cautious. BA operated a near-normal schedule yesterday, with only six flights to the US and six incoming flights cancelled.

BA is by no means in the clear, however. It must complete negotiations on reducing its £2.1 billion pension deficit with the workforce before the autumn; it has to manage the move to Terminal 5, which will involve new working practices and job cuts; and the long arm of the law is still hovering with the continuing Office of Fair Trading and Department of Justice investigation into allegations of cartel activity over fuel surcharges.

However, excepting the pension deficit, BA’s numbers look healthy. Only last week the airline said that it had achieved a record passenger load of 78.3 per cent during the first quarter. The figures for July were also high, with its aircraft flying 82.3 per cent full.

BA said that its decision to slash prices on short-haul routes, designed to make it more competitive with the low-cost carriers, had resulted in unprecedented planeloads. Management is confident that it will make its target margin of 10 per cent by 2008, and the chairman even raised the possibility that the dividend, not paid since 2001, could be restored soon.

The news on Thursday will deter some travellers for a few weeks, maybe months, but the airlines are strong enough to withstand that, and passengers will return. At this point easyJet and British Airways are worth a buy, in preference to Ryanair, which has lost little value.

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