Gerard Baker, US Editor
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Federal Reserve statement in full
The Federal Reserve yesterday threw away the monetary policy rule book it has been using for 50 years in its most dramatic effort yet to stem the global economic crisis.
In a single stroke, the US central bank in effect eliminated the cost of borrowing money between banks overnight. It promised that US rates would stay at or near zero for the foreseeable future. And, acknowledging that it now has no more room to cut rates, it announced new, unprecedented measures to stimulate the economy, namely pouring cash into almost every crevice of the financial system and massively expanding its own balance sheet.
The two-day meeting of the Fed’s open market committee which ended yesterday must have been one of the most extraordinary in the central bank’s 95-year history. For more than a year the Fed has been deploying all kinds of weapons – traditional monetary policy implements as well as hastily-manufactured new ones – to prevent the US economy from collapsing into a deep and enduring depression.
But, indicating the gravity of the crisis and the failure of all those previous efforts to turn things around, Ben Bernanke, the Fed chairman, and his colleagues, today threw every remaining tool in their toolbox at the financial markets.
There were three key elements to the Fed’s move – each of them dramatic in its own right.
First, it cut rates once again from the existing one per cent to something close to nothing. But, instead of announcing a target rate for the overnight interest rate – as it has done for the last decade – the Fed said it would aim to keep the rate in a range – between zero and a quarter percentage point. This unusual move reflects the fact that the federal funds rate – a market interest rate that the Fed can move only indirectly – has been volatile recently because of continuing strains in the interbank lending market.
Second, in its statement accompanying the move, it noted that the US economy had deteriorated on almost all fronts in the last few weeks, and it said that those “weak economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for some time.”
The Fed rarely commits itself to future policy decisions but those words are tantamount to saying that rates will remain at or near zero for a long time.
Third, Mr Bernanke has launched the US on an uncharted path of what economists call “quantitative easing”, emergency measures to stimulate an economy in the clutches of deflationary collapse.
With short-term interest rates now at zero, the central bank can no longer cut rates to stimulate the economy. Instead, it can in effect print money, by buying up all kinds of assets and flooding the economy with cash. The Fed’s statement said it would begin buying mortgage-backed securities on the open market. It also announced it was evaluating buying up long-term government debt.
The significance of this development is that it will push interest rates on these assets substantially lower from their already low level. That should help stimulate demand.
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The madmen are truly in charge of the global economy.
David Meyer, London, UK
Yippee! We are in for one heck of a dollar ride! Time to buy gold, boys and girls! Wait a minute, since there is value in gold, the government might try to steal it again...What do I do now? Note to U.S. government: Pretend for a minute that my comments represent the "average" investor's thinking...
Wendy, Federal Way, WA, U.S.A.
The US economy will only begin a real recovery when the focus shifts from consumption to production. Debt incurred supporting consumers is no substitute for investment in wealth creation. Until the elites recognise this there is no hope.
Stephen Hargreaves, Sydney, Australia
Drop sterling and adopt the Euro rapido! And fully join and support the EU or will be toast!
Gus, Glos, UK
If the cost of borrowing does become zero surely borrowly will cease all together as what is the point of lending?
Tom, London,
Been here before, did not work then will not work now..
But, will be somebody else's problem in January, won't it?.....
Graham , Littlehampton,
If Bernanke is learning from the BOJ then he is a fool. Maybe what he should do is to print 50M dollars per person and give it to each and every citizen of america... that way everyone will be rich and out of debt no? Maybe German history can shed some light on the possible outcomes of that option.
Harvey, London, UK
People who said the bank bailout wouldn't work, have been proved right. This is another bailout. The problem is poor management in banking - not addressed yet, and also lax banking laws, better to have 90% mortgages, not 100%. Speed up house prices falls = more disposable income = economic expansion
Hugo van Randwyck, London, UK
The theories as to the cause of the great depression were wrong except the obvious one. Once debt repayment is greater than 30% of GDP then depression is inevitable. That happened twice in history, 1929 and 2007. You cant fix this by moving debt from private to public hands. The Austrians are right.
Stephen O'Mara, Tamworth, Australia
I remember the silver certificates and pocket money that was money. For several years we had notes and our pocket change got cheeper. Soon Monopoly money will be worth more.
Tom, Leeper, USA
the choice has always been ..accept a short sharp shock now and move on in a couple of years time..or manage the downturn..which is what responsible governmenst are trying to do. The massive gamble here though is that hyper -inflation is rleased later..and that destroys societies and cultures.
Steve Timms, Edinburgh, UK
Don't blame me! I voted for Ron Paul!
Sandy Sanders, Richmond, USA
I wish the Fed would pump some of that money in my direction. I am really good at spending, plus I tip well!
Douglas Johnston, New York, USA
Errm......I just don't see how this is going to work....
I get the distinct impression they don't know what they're doing.....
Andy, Doncaster,
I think its time for Britannia to recognise, that the slavish dependency on US policies (whatever) should be discontinued. Welcome back to Europe, folks.; take part and integrate.
Viele Gruesse from Bavaria (land of the free ;-)
Karlheinz Hirn, Munich, Germany
The obvious answer to stop hoarding is to tax deposits at a rate of 3% p.a and tax cash withdrawls greater than 10000 in a month. Spend or lose money.
Stephen O'Mara, Tamworth, Australia
It is really rather difficult to imagine, today, how (for the US), 'printing money' can be inflationary. No currencies are tied to a commodity price any more, and USD are held as a 'reserve currency' by all of the world's central banks. (68% of world reserves, at the last count.) They have won!
jeannie, perugia,
As they say, the truth often hurts.
Money is pulped paper and as such, can be recycled into the New Dollar...which is just around the corner. Soon, with the launch of the New Blue Back, America will step free from its Ground Hogg Day.
Will there be pain...for sure, but there's no otherway out.
David Downes, Chester, UK
What to do? I think monetary policy has become irrelevant now. I would offer folowing measures: 1. Predident Obama suspend USA income tax for 6 months. 2.Stop also employment taxes (Social security) taxes for 12 months. 3.USA Federal reserve start buying longer term Fed securities(10yrs
Rait, London, UK
If anyone has any ideas other than negative scenarios I am sure the feds would like to hear from you.You should also be hoping that they are doing the right thing because without this country nobodys economy is going to go anywhere.There will probably always be hegemony so who would you rather have?
Ray Crampton, Fairfax, USA
"generalised deflation, the ultimate nightmare scenario for policymakers" - because negative interest rates cannot work and the wisdom of fools says print more money. This is going to be worse than the Depression - but the experts won't admit that they don't know what to do in this unchartered land.
Shaun Hexter, London,
So, the US Fed is now going to start printing money as essentially they don't have anything else left. Expect a collapse in the value of the Dollar in 2009. Wall Street has managed to achieve what no terrorist could dream of. Bringing the States to its knees and end its hegemony. How ironic.
Paul Galbally, Carlow, Ireland