Has Barclays really escaped nationalisation? It was the top gainer in the rising FTSE 100, up 30¾p to 246p, amid hopes that its refusal of a government bailout would make it nimbler than HBOS and Lloyds TSB, which have agreed and whose shares were moving in the opposite direction.

But there are growing concerns that its pride may be coming before a big fall. Next Tuesday is the payout deadline for institutions that have invested in $400 billion of Lehman Brothers’ toxic debt. Barclays’s exposure is unknown but Sandy Chen, Panmure Gordon’s bank analyst, said: “Barclays’ independent approach was an anomaly - and not in a good way.”

Barclays said that its trading profits had improved in September, but both HBOS and Royal Bank of Scotland gave warning of the need for further writedowns. Mr Chen said: “We think these can be read across to Barclays.” He believes that Barclays needs to raise up to £16 billion of fresh money, not the £8 billion that it is targeting.

Danny Clarke, of Shore Capital, said that he preferred RBS to Barclays, since it appeared to have been less aggressive than RBS in writing down its off-balance sheet debt. “If it ends up going back to the Government for the capital, we suspect that would be on materially worse terms,” he said.

The FTSE 100 managed a second day of gains, closing up 137.31 points, or 3 per cent, at 4,394.2 but volume was still relatively light and stronger gains in the morning were eroded by volatile trading on Wall Street.

Investors were pulling out of Lloyds TSB, down 10.7p at 151.3p, since it is scrapping dividends to receive the bailout. HBOS, its takeover target, fell another 4.7p to 85.3p, retaining a 7 per cent discount to the Lloyds offer.

RBS fell 0.7p to a new low of 65p. Jonathan Pierce, of Credit Suisse, said that analysts had struggled on a conference call with bosses to determine just how it had managed to be profitable in the three months to the end of September. He fears that the figures may have been flattered by gains on the theoretical value of derivatives. There is also a concern that the government guarantee of its funding will come at a high interest cost.

Thomson Reuters managed a 10p rise to £11.68 despite a “sell” note from UBS, saying that its markets division, which supplies trading screens to banks, would not through before the first quarter of 2010.

Mapeley, landlord to Abbey National’s branches, fell 12½p to 637p, adding to a 56p fall on Monday, while other property stocks were rising. Bank nationalisation is likely to spark a lending drought for developers and Mapeley regularly refinances loans. There are also fears that Fortress Investments, the US hedge fund that floated it and retains control, may have to sell down its 57 per cent stake as it tries to raise capital.

Mitchells & Butlers rose 20¼p to 174p in high volume amid talk that Joe Lewis was seeking to bring his 25 per cent stake, acquired from Robert Tchenguiz at 130p, up to the maximum 29.9 per cent that he is allowed to hold without a bid.

New York: Oil fell and stocks retreated on Wall Street from strong opening gains as fears of recession overcame the euphoria over Washington’s plan to invest in banks, following the European model. At the close the Dow Jones industrial average was down 76.62 points at 9,310.99.

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