Other than its City head office and private bank in the West End, Standard Chartered barely registers on these shores. But the imploding value of its peers means that the FTSE 100 lender – valued at £17 billion – ranks squarely among Britain’s three biggest banks.

It is also one of only two – HSBC being the other – that are forecast to pay a final dividend this year and one of only a handful that do not have the Treasury as a prospective shareholder.

Such independence worked in Standard Chartered’s favour yesterday as the bank’s reminder to the Stock Exchange that it had no need to recapitalise sent its shares up by 20 per cent. However, that bounce also reflects the extent to which they had fallen over the past few months: down by nearly one half in four months to close below £10 last week for the first time in three years.

In a banking sector where earnings multiples have plummeted, Standard Chartered’s shares could not help but follow suit. More recently, they have been depressed by mounting evidence that the economies of Asia – where it does 80 per cent of its business – are slowing. That much was clear at the bank’s first-half results in August. GDP growth in Hong Kong, its biggest territory, has only worsened since then, and strong US trade links mean that Taiwan – where Standard owns Hsinchu International Bank – is highly vulnerable to American recession. Neither will tumbling Asian stock markets have helped unit-trust sales, an important contributor to consumer banking revenues.

Even at mid-single-digit percentage gains, the economies of Asia are still growing and, unlike their Western counterparts, are forecast to carry on doing so next year. Tight regulation means that loan-to-value mortgage ratios in Hong Kong and elsewhere are firmly capped at 90 per cent and below, and an easing of commodity prices should ease the inflationary pressures on the region that have done much to sour sentiment.

The other hope is that Standard’s relative insulation from the credit crunch will enable it to prosper at its rivals’ expense – especially in its aim of selling a wider range of products to corporate clients. Domestic difficulties suggest that Citigroup, a key competitor in both wholesale and consumer banking, will have been more introverted of late. That suspicion also applies to Royal Bank of Scotland, which bought the Asian operations of ABN Amro. Indeed, should they come on the block, Standard might be a potential buyer.

Yesterday’s share price surge – to £12.00, or seven times next year’s earnings, and yielding 4.3 per cent – has eroded some of the short-term attraction. Prospective investors should also monitor potentially adverse currency moves in India and South Korea. All the same, any move back towards £10 should prove an attractive point of entry.

Clinton Cards

The economic downturn is even affecting the greeting cards that people buy one another. Clinton Cards yesterday bemoaned the fact that shoppers are no longer spending as much to say “Happy Birthday” to their loved ones.

Investors will need a bit of TLC of their own over the coming weeks as they digest yesterday’s dismal set of full-year results from the retailer. A £30 million goodwill charge at Birthdays, the business bought by Clinton Cards in 2004, pushed the group into a £15.1 million loss for the year to July 31. The dividend is cut for only the second time in the company’s 20-year history on the stock market.

The present turmoil is also clearly affecting footfall. Like-for-like sales have fallen 4.6 per cent in the past nine weeks, compared with growth of 0.2 per cent in the prior six months.

With Christmas around the corner, Clinton has reason to hope that trading will pick up. Another of its rivals, Celebrations Group, which owns Card Warehouse and Cardfair, fell into administration last week and this should benefit both the Clinton Cards and Birthdays chains.

Analysts reacted to yesterday’s gloom by taking their red pens to forecasts for the current financial year, with Numis forecasting underlying pre-tax profits of £10 million. The shares fell by as much as 27 per cent yesterday before recovering slightly to close down 18 per cent, an 11-year low. They may still have farther to fall. Avoid.

YouGov

YouGov is the market research firm that reckons it can defy the deteriorating economy. Results yesterday showed that it had managed 38 per cent organic growth in its British operation, while acquired businesses in the United States, Germany and Scandinavia had improved revenues by 29 per cent. The expectation is that such performance will temper modestly next year, to about 25 per cent, which means that, in cash terms, revenues increase from last year’s £40.4 million to £50 million.

YouGov’s argument is that it is the challenger brand. Market research tends to be a relatively resilient form of spending, even in a downturn, as corporates struggle to live without it. Its internet panel model means that it can charge less than established rivals and it hopes to win some customers on the back of lower prices. WPP’s takeover of TNS may also help, because the inevitable disruption that will follow a deal may persuade a few clients to shift their business YouGov’s way.

Yet all this assumes that YouGov delivers on all fronts, across the UK, US, Europe and the Middle East. A slip in one or two markets could set back business sharply. YouGov trades at 7.8 times this year’s profits, in line with WPP. YouGov’s rating seems fair, given the risk involved, and it is hard to believe that any company will be the one that dodges a downturn. Hold.

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