Patrick Hosking, Banking and Finance Editor
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Anthony Bolton, London’s best-known stockpicker, said yesterday that he had never seen retailing and media shares looking so cheap and that he had begun to put his own money into the equity market at the height of the current financial crisis.
Mr Bolton, president for investments at Fidelity International, said that the UK stock market seemed to be at or near the bottom and he had become much more optimistic in the past two weeks. “Shares [in some sectors] are as cheap as I’ve seen them in my lifetime,” he said, citing consumer cyclical sectors such as retailing and media as particular bargains.
After pausing several years in adding to his stock market investments, he said he had put fresh personal money into Fidelity equity funds two weeks ago and on Monday – the day the US bank bailout plan was derailed. “For the first time in a couple of years, in the last few weeks I’ve started to feel optimistic,” he said.
Mr Bolton made his reputation as the stockpicker behind the Fidelity Special Situations Fund. Between its launch in 1979 and 2007, when he stood down from running it, he multiplied investors’ money 147 times. He rose to prominence when he orchestrated the ousting of Michael Green as chairman-designate of ITV, and acquired the nickname “The Quiet Assassin” – a moniker he detests.
Mr Bolton told guests at a City lunch yesterday that the rally in markets would not be dramatic. “It’s going to be a protracted and slow upturn,” he said.
The bear market had gone on too long and, at 15 months, was already “long in the tooth” compared with previous share market slides. “In the last two weeks we have looked into the abyss that you get at the bottom [of each bear market],” he said.
Sentiment was so poor, Mr Bolton suggested, that the only way was up. Companies with low leverage would do well, he predicted. Measured by price to book values and enterprise value to sales ratios, many shares were egregiously cheap.
Media shares had underperformed the stock market for seven years, and it was time to buy them, Mr Bolton argued. A broad basket of financial stocks was also attractive. “I’ve got concerns about all the banks, but a lot of those concerns are already reflected in the price,” he said.
Mr Bolton said that investors in banks had been wrongfooted by banks’ opacity and huge off balance sheet assets and liabilities, which made them hard to analyse. “I’d never heard of SIVs [before May 2007],” he said. “I didn’t know they existed.” SIVs, or structured investment vehicles, were the huge off balance sheet funds through which banks invested in complex, and sometimes toxic, structured credit assets.
Mr Bolton said there did not have to be a big trigger for a turning point, although a US bailout might help. “It can just be when people stop selling,” he said. He preferred shares in developed markets. It was too early to buy in emerging markets.
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"If you think armagedon is on the way then buy a black (sic) of gold which yields no interest at all"
Doesn't yield interest, but doesn't have its value eroded by inflation, either. Think bonds have outperformed gold over the last five years? Take a look. :)
John Mack, Aberdeen, UK
Some junk bonds are now offering interet rates that are truly eye watering. If you believe that UK and US interest rates are going to come down sharply, as well as inflation in the near future then BUY. If you think armagedon is on the way then buy a black of gold which yields no interest at all
David Nammory, Liverpool,
It's truly wonderful to read about Warren Buffet and Anthony Bolton returning to the market. I can't wait to see whether they end up on an even higher pedestal or whether we can all take comfort in the fact they are human like the rest of us and make duff investments occasionally.
MarkS, Leeds,
Markets rally when interst rates are cut and are starting to work..
Where are the rate cuts..?
But Bolton is definitely NOT a fool..
Powder dry and waiting to reinvest.. (altough I have doubled my money this year so far)
Madasafish, Stoke,
Look at history - BUY stocks when you are afraid the most - it works every time.
Sam, New York, USA
Great! A man who relies on everyone else trading tells us to trade! Like a drug dealer telling us we need drugs.
Mike, Bristol, UK,
"put his own money into the equity market" - would he quantify this ? A pound wouldn't show much confidence and he does have a vested interest in getting punters to place new bets with his firm.
john, london,
Fantastic, he can lose "His Ill-gotten Gain's" from a "False Market"!
paul, Manchester, UK