Nick Hasell: Tempus
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It’s not necessary to go as far as Almaty or Mexico City to find a FTSE 100 company that most people have never heard of. Dundee will do. There resides Alliance Trust, the closed-end investment fund that this year secured a place in Britain’s benchmark index for the first time in its 120-year history.
Alliance’s low profile - even in relation to Foreign & Colonial and Witan, to which it is best compared - can be pinned in part on its being a conservatively run institution with a base of loyal, private shareholders who tend to buy and hold. The other, less favourable explanation is that Alliance’s below-par investment performance has done much to keep it in the shadows. On a five-year view, it ranks 28th out of 31 global growth equity funds on the basis of net asset value (NAV).
However, yesterday’s first-half figures from Alliance drew above-average interest. They marked the first public outing of Katherine Garrett-Cox, the former Hill Samuel and Morley fund manager, who last month was raised to chief executive - and it is on her that hopes of a reversal of Alliance’s historic underperformance are pinned. The first encouragement is that Ms Garrett-Cox seeks to return Alliance’s focus to quoted equity after a period in which it has raised its exposure to alternative assets, such as property, private equity and hedge funds. That strategy also entails looking farther afield for investments - Britain accounts for about 40 per cent of its portfolio - and holding fewer stocks in greater size. The second boost is that she does not rule out buying back shares, something to which Alliance traditionally has been averse. Given the extent to which buybacks have enabled other trusts to narrow their discount to NAV, that is welcome.
The greater short-term reassurance is that, with Ms Garrett-Cox having served as chief investment officer for the past 16 months, performance has started to pick up. All but one of Alliance’s six regional funds have outperformed their benchmark over the past six months, such that it is starting to ascend the rankings. Alliance’s switch into cash - now 13 per cent of its portfolio, its highest proportion for 30 years - has paid off and provides considerable opportunity for its funds to gear up.
At 285¾p, up 7p from Monday’s three-year low, Alliance’s 19 per cent discount to NAV - the steepest in its peer group - is a clear attraction, but first-time investors may want to await further evidence of turnaround before buying in.
Enterprise Inns
Yesterday’s full-year trading update from Enterprise Inns was upstaged somewhat as a tenant in Kent publicised his anger at recent rent and beer increases by spending the day in a coffin at one of his three Enterprise tenancies. Colm Powell, who is due to be served with an eviction notice by the company, claimed that the greedy actions of people such as Ted Tuppen, the Enterprise chief executive, were killing the pub trade.
Mr Powell is not alone in suffering, as the Enterprise update shows. It said that the number of its licensees being offered financial assistance, mainly in the form of beer discounts, had accelerated in the final quarter and 850 were now enjoying concessions. The cost of such help is expected to rise from £9 million this year to £10 million next.
But an unruffled Mr Tuppen insisted that, while times undoubtedly were tough, the tenanted business model was far from broken and 83 per cent of its 7,700 pubs were seeing earnings growth, helped by food sales. He pointed out that, despite the impact on beer sales from the smoking ban and consumer downturn, 40 per cent of licensees had actually increased beer income over the past year.
The sailing enthusiast was also keen to put clear water between Enterprise and Punch Taverns, which has seen its share price hammered since it decided to scrap dividends to preserve cash and make debt repayments. Enterprise is forecast to hold the final dividend, equating to a rise in the full-year payout of 6 per cent. By stepping up disposals and cutting back on acquisitions and capital investment, Enterprise should be able to pay off another £100 million of debt.
Despite the worst trading period in 20 years, the company is forecast to suffer a decline in earnings of just 3 per cent, putting the shares - up 21¼p at 178½p - on a multiple of 4.6. Its strong cashflows and 10 per cent yield mean Enterprise is far from a dead investment. Keep holding.
Game Group
Game Group, the computer games retailer, has proved oblivious to the credit crunch so far. Like-for-like sales were up 22 per cent in the first half, thanks to the arrival of the latest version of Grand Theft Auto, a blockbuster game that has sold more than 1.5 million copies. Not every game, however, is quite like GTA and like-for-like sales growth has tempered to a more realistic 4.9 per cent in the past eight weeks. Expect growth to moderate more next year, as console prices are cut and, as the console life cycle matures, the balance of the business tilts to cheaper games sales. Game tells us not to worry because software is more profitable - so it expects earnings to lift again in 2009. It is a fair prediction, too, particularly as Game is aggressively opening stores across Europe. Yet, as the credit crunch deepens, consumers will be probably be slower to shell out £45 for football, singing or shooting games. In addition, the admission that like-for-like growth is easing is also a sign that 2009 is near the top of the games cycle.
At yesterday’s 205p, Game is priced at 13 times this year’s earnings, and eight times next. That is more reasonable than it has been most of this year and, while times are uncertain, Game sits in an industry sweet spot. Add.
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