Leo Lewis on Asia
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So finally, after years of twitching impatiently for that most desirable of gongs, South Korea has been declared “developed” by the compilers of FTSE global financial indexes. Congratulations, but what a catastrophe.
Nobody should seek to deprive Korea of the fun of at last being able to swagger around in the developed boys’ club: a more prickly question is how long it wants to stay there. It is, after all, so much better to travel hopefully than to arrive.
Viewed from Seoul, the decision by the FTSE index makers to place Korea on the 24-strong list of developed nations is unquestionably marvellous. Like a knighthood, an Olympic medal and a golden parachute all wrapped into one fabulously overdue package, the designation confers bragging rights (over China), confirmation of superiority (over most of South-East Asia) and, potentially, buckets of lucre (via any global funds that exclusively invest in developed markets).
Certainly, the financial side of things could, in the longer term, be good news. Tens of billions of dollars of capital would potentially pour into a developed Korea, and its biggest companies – world class giants such as Samsung, Hyundai and LG – would finally start commanding the sort of price-to-earnings multiples they probably deserve when placed in the same indexes as US, Japanese and European competitors.
But, at the same time, plenty of billions would also flood out. All that adventurous emerging market risk capital that thought of Korea as a young, dynamic and hungry economy will start to think of it as a mature, boring one.
The visuals are bad for one thing. Developed countries these days seem to be about broken levees, leaky Victorian sewers and dysfunctional public transport. Emerging markets are about the Three Gorges Dam, billion-dollar infrastructure spending and the most advanced high-speed rail systems in the world.
Any decent global strategist will confirm the problem. What are the most exciting markets in the world at the moment and where are all the best growth stories? Many believe the answer lies in the BRIC economies – Brazil, Russia, India and China. Where are the real horror shows and all the signs of stagnancy and decline? Many believe the answer lies with the PIGS – Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain.
Can it really be a coincidence that while, without exception, all the PIGS's economies have achieved developed market status in the eyes of the FTSE index-makers, all the BRIC economies are still waiting in the wings?
Looking down the full list of developed countries, Korea finds itself arriving late at a party where the guests are either drunk, getting there, or passed out on the floor. America’s credit crisis, Britain’s property miseries and Japan’s recession do rather take the joy out of promotion to the developed club.
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