Peter Stiff
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Although many of us will enjoy a pint or two in the pub this weekend, it is a sad reality that many a local is struggling to hold on to its regulars as harder economic times set in.
This unwelcome truth has sent a shiver through the country’s pub chains of late and nowhere has this been more apparent than in Enterprise Inns, which found itself, not for the first time, the FTSE 100’s heaviest faller. It has been a bad week for the stock, which has slipped more than 10 per cent, with investors fearing the impact of the slowdown in consumer spending, rising costs and a likely FTSE 100 demotion.
Enterprise closed down another 11¼p at 303½p yesterday after analysts at both Credit Suisse and Landsbanki gave warning of harder times to come.
“We are concerned that UK pub profitability will continue to come under pressure in the next 12 months due to the consumer slowdown and inflationary pressure,” Credit Suisse wrote in a note to clients, cautioning that beer sales would be flat or decline, food sales growth would be below inflation and that rental income would also be stagnant.
Furthermore, the broker, which initiated coverage on Enterprise with an “underperform” rating, said that it expected the group to run close to breaching its debt covenants. However, it estimates that earnings would have to fall 9 per cent below its 2009 estimates to £465 million for that to happen.
Landsbanki also said that pubs would come under pressure as household spending deteriorates and it downgraded Enterprise to “reduce”, from “hold”, cutting its earnings forecasts for 2009 by 3 per cent and for 2010 by 5 per cent. It also gave warning that, although attempting to become a real estate investment trust (Reit) was the right decision, it believes that shareholders are overoptimistic about what Reit status is worth to them.
Elsewhere in the pubs sector, negative broker comments did nothing to harm Punch Taverns, up 7p to 291¼p, or Mitchells & Butlers, which rose 6½p to 286¼p.
Overall, the FTSE 100 was up 35.4 points to 5,636.6, led by financials and oil stocks. Banks were buoyed by relief that interim results from the troubled mortgage lender Bradford & Bingley, down 1¼p to 49p, did not contain any nasty surprises. HBOS rose 10¼p to 315¾p, Barclays gained 3½p to close at 353p and Royal Bank of Scotland put on 4¾p to 234¾p.
Cairn Energy advanced 121p to £29.78 and BG was up 32p to £12.19 after oil reached $118 a barrel.
Vodafone fell 1.8p to 141.05p amid fears that its attempt to buy Telkom’s share of Vodacom, its South African joint venture, could be derailed by interest in the stake from Globacom, the Nigerian operator. Vodacom also announced the $700 million (£384 million) acquisition of a local satellite and terrestrial network service provider.
In the FTSE 250, Davis Service Group was the biggest faller, down 64½p to 341p, after it reduced its full-year forecasts.
New York: Wall Street shares fell as the price of oil rose and as a warning by Dell, the computer maker, that companies worldwide are cutting back on technology spending spooked the sector. The Dow Jones industrial average closed down 171.20 at 11,544.00.
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