Nick Hasell: Tempus
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It is not only Britain’s publicans who are feeling the pinch from falling beer sales. Some of the stock market’s engineers are suffering, too. Take IMI, whose activities include making cooling, dispensing and point-of-sale equipment for draught beers.
With pub operators squeezed by last year’s smoking ban in England and Wales, another summer of poor weather and, in many cases, stretched balance sheets, capital expenditure on bar fittings has come under pressure. In yesterday’s first-half results, IMI reported a 20 per cent fall in UK revenues in its beverage dispensing division.
Nor does the company expect an early improvement. Rather, it thinks that trading will become “more challenging” in the second half, such that sales volumes for the division as a whole – which also supplies to soft-drinks bottlers and contract caterers – are likely to be “slightly down” on the year.
However, it is IMI’s advantage that it serves a wide range of end markets – providing everything from heavy-duty valves for oil and gas production to fluid controls for trains and lorries – and many of these niches continue to prosper. Underlying revenues rose 6 per cent with operating profits up by a hefty 28 per cent, albeit that some of that gain came from currency moves (with nearly 90 per cent of its sales drawn from outside Britain, IMI is a clear beneficiary of a weaker pound). That outcome was all the more impressive given the disruption caused by an investigation into irregular payments in CCI, a Californian subsidiary. The inquiry is continuing and the likely hit to IMI is still uncertain – the US Department of Justice has levied fines of about $20 million (£10.9 million) in similar cases – but IMI said that the affected operation is now trading normally. Indeed, its order book is 20 per cent higher than before the alleged corruption came to light.
There are other grounds for optimism. IMI’s indoor climate division, which provides heating and cooling systems for residential and commercial buildings, should benefit from higher fuel prices and a continued drive towards energy efficiency. Further, IMI’s restructuring efforts – principally the shift of manufacturing capacity to lower cost economies – should continue to push operating margins towards its target 15 per cent (from 13.2 per cent currently).
However, given the breadth of its businesses, IMI, at 495¾p, up 28½p, or nine times next year’s earnings, is less geared to recovery than are many of its peers. Hold.
Hunting
It is tempting to treat yesterday’s first-half figures from Hunting, the oilfield services specialist, as something of an irrelevance: a dull but obligatory disclosure following this month’s more significant £626 million disposal of its Gibson Energy division and which precedes the promised reinvestment of the proceeds.
The stock market saw things differently, however, sending shares in Hunting down nearly 6 per cent at their worst amid disappointment that profits from well completion equipment – the biggest of Hunting’s continuing businesses – had gone backwards in the six months to June 30: down 11 per cent to $27.1 million (£14.8 million). That appears harsh. The dip in profits was caused by delays in steel deliveries for North Sea contracts that have since unwound and full-year forecasts remain unchanged. For its part, Hunting says trading remains strong, its order book continues to lengthen and, in a further sign of confidence, it has raised its interim dividend by 14 per cent.
The bigger attraction is that pending the sale of Gibson – which should complete in October – Hunting has evolved from a difficult-to-value energy services conglomerate to a pure-play provider of upstream oilfield technology with £350 million of cash on its balance sheet. Assuming that it can make bolt-on acquisitions at lower earnings multiples than its own, upgrades to profit forecasts should soon ensue. If not, it remains vulnerable to consolidation in a sector in which an acute skills shortage continues to drive takeover activity: rivals Abbot Group and Expro International have been bought in the past nine months alone. This suggests that yesterday’s dip to 860½p, or about 18 times this year’s earnings, a discount to its sector, marks a good point to buy.
Savills
Savills is best known for selling those plush country houses adorning glossy magazines. However, it is the more mundane business of consulting and property management that should keep the company ticking over through the credit crunch.
That much was evident from yesterday’s first-half figures. While operating profits from Savills’s once-dominant transactional division – which encompasses estate agency for both commercial and high-end residential property – slid by 88 per cent to just £2.5 million, those from property services rose 15 per cent to £16.4 million.
Clearly, advisory work, particularly in the commercial sector, does not evaporate overnight. If anything, property owners and occupiers need more guidance in uncertain times. Many occupiers will want advice on reducing space or negotiating rent reviews with landlords. Owners want to know how to work their portfolios harder. The broader comfort is that trading on the transactional side, although bad, is getting no worse.
In the meantime, Savills has used the downturn to poach from the rival DTZ a corporate finance team – an area it has long targeted – and identified £25 million of cost savings.
Under Jeremy Helsby, its new chief executive, Savills should recover sharply in an upturn. However, with property markets likely to stay tough for the next 12 months, at least, and with yesterday’s 17 per cent jump to 283¾p having priced in short-term attractions, the shares – at ten times 2008 earnings and yielding 6.3 per cent – are up with events. Hold.
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