It is not just the likes of Centrica that stand to gain from soaring gas bills. PayPoint, which operates an over-the-counter cash payment network, should benefit too.

Sales of the FTSE 250 company, whose distinctive blue and yellow logo adorns thousands of corner shops, are linked to the number of transactions it handles. So as energy bills rise, an increasing proportion of utility customers are likely to pay more frequently - most typically monthly rather than quarterly - to spread the burden.

Another behavioural effect should also work in the company’s favour. Given that energy prices have risen faster than incomes, prepayment customers are typically slow to increase the amount they put on their cards, meaning more frequent trips to the corner shop to top up their accounts.

That phenomenon is already being felt. Although summer is a slack period for energy consumption, PayPoint was able to report yesterday that bill payments are running ahead of expectations. However, those tidings, together with the reassurance that profits are in line with forecasts, were not enough to underpin the shares. They fell nearly 6 per cent as it admitted that mobile phone top-up payments, which account for about one third of sales, had fallen - a tentative sign that consumers are limiting their phone usage. A three-month delay to the launch of PayPoint’s nascent household bill payment service in Romania, which it entered last year through acquisition, also hurt (albeit that service has now gone live).

For longer-term shareholders, PayPoint has much to commend it. Aside from the ability of gas and electricity volumes to offset any weakness in mobile telecoms, bill payment is a defensive niche that should prove resilient to downturn, particularly given the continuing closure of post offices. It has scope for huge growth in transport: last week’s termination of the Transys Oyster contract by Transport for London creates a clear opportunity. So, too, does the Government’s proposed revamp of the Post Office Card Account, for which it is tendering.

PayPoint’s shares are tightly held, which makes them vulnerable to sharp swings. But for those unfazed by volatility, yesterday’s 600½p, or 17 times 2009 earnings - reasonable given double-digit growth - marks a good point to buy in.

Bellway

Summer is always slow for housebuilders; nowhere more so than in the midst of a credit crunch. So it should come as no surprise to see Bellway extend this month’s trend of unremittingly negative numbers.

The Tyneside group reported that cancellation rates were running at record levels, with reservations down 45 per cent in the second half, setting the tone for a gloomy set of full-year results come October. Operating margins have also fallen sharply – by up to 3 percentage points from last year’s 18.7 per cent – as Bellway used sales incentives to prop up volumes. Yet it is in by no means as bad a position as many of its rivals. Average prices have fallen by 2.5 per cent, which shows resilience given the overall 7.6 per cent fall since April reported by Halifax last week. Nor does Bellway expect widespread writedowns on its land bank, although it admits that some recent purchases will not produce margins close to what it is used to.

It has been able to switch more of its activity to social housing - now a fifth of volumes - where blocks of houses are forward-sold to housing associations. This means more sales are less exposed to financing from high street banks. And while other housebuilders are busy renegotiating covenants with their lenders, Bellway enjoys gearing of only 23 per cent; this year’s interest payments should be covered by earnings ten times. This suggests that Bellway, criticised for being too cautious in the past, looks well placed to pull itself through this downturn.

For bold short-term investors, money can still be made from the sector - witness the 71 per cent rally from last month’s lows. At yesterday’s 560p, or 17 times next year’s earnings, a prospective dividend yield of 8 per cent is the biggest draw. However, whatever its merits, still-worsening trends counsel continued caution. Avoid.

Air Partner

There are not many small-cap aviation stocks that are trading at a premium to their level of 18 months ago. Thankfully, Air Partner - the air charter broker that Tempus last recommended in February 2007 - is among them: up a solid 5 per cent, having been ahead 66 per cent at its peak and paying a chunky special dividend in the interim. Yesterday, the Gatwick company reported that figures for the 12 months to July 31 would be ahead of expectations, with sales up 30 per cent and pretax profits ahead 20 per cent.

Air Partner’s allure is that of a nimble operator with low capital requirements that, 48 years after its founding, has proved very adept at reading its markets. It has also spent the past few years steadily diversifying away from the more cyclical corporate charter market towards a higher proportion of government-related work - which accounted for nearly one half of last year’s sales, against one third previously. It flies everything from the US presidential press corps, MoD supplies to Iraq and Afghanistan, and donor organs for the NHS. Through its private jet operation, it has also carved out a niche catering to the super-rich, whose travel plans so far have shown little signs of disruption by the credit crunch.

The problem is that Air Partner’s order book stretches only 30 days ahead at most, and that August is its quietest time, making its fortunes for the current financial year hard to divine. That suggests that, at 885p, or 15 times earnings, prospective buyers should await October’s full-year results for a clearer view. Hold.

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