James Rossiter: Tempus
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If there were any investors left in the retail sector who thought that the high street could not get any worse after such a poor Christmas period, then the trading update yesterday from DSG International, Britain's largest electrical goods retailer, should make them think again.
A second profit warning in four months from the owner of the Currys and PC World chains gives measure of the task facing John Browett, the chief executive since December, who is scheduled to deliver the first phase of his business review next month.
It has been Mr Browett's misfortune to take charge of the retailer just as consumer confidence has fallen off a cliff. With mortgage repayment rates on the increase while house prices are sliding, the first items that homeowners are likely to resist are the TVs and microwaves that DSG peddles.
DSG's misfortunes follow news that Signet, the jewellery retailer, suffered declining sales in the US for the first nine weeks of 2008. Signet, which gave warning on profits in November, said that like-for-like sales from its UK operations - Ernest Jones and H. Samuel - have been running in positive single-digit figures since January. However, the warning from Mr Browett that sales in DSG stores were being driven by promotional offers will hardly give confidence to Signet's sales momentum in Britain. Mr Browett must deal with a long-term problem: whether DSG's model of selling via high street stores and warehouses is fundamentally flawed when increasing numbers of shoppers surf the internet to seek out bargains.
The figures reported yesterday bear testament to that trend. The underlying sales picture is one of steady decline that set in long before the malaise of the new year, down 1 per cent for the six months to April. DSG, down 5p to 59p, has fallen from a high of 220p in 18 months. However, investors should not be tempted by a potential yield of more than 13 per cent as the dividend is likely to be slashed to pay for a sales showroom revamp. When a company gives warning on profits twice in quick succession, it may be worth waiting for the next one before counting on a share price that offers good value.
At 64p, off 2p yesterday, Signet has halved in one year and now yields a tempting 5.5 per cent. Investors worried about a worsening retail climate should stay clear, however.
The outlook for DSG and Signet should trigger a reappraisal of other big retailers. Halfords, the car-parts and bike retailer, fell 8p to 285p yesterday. The shares may be off last year's high of 412p but they plumbed 243p in the post-Christmas jitters. Judging by other retailers' trading, those jitters may return. Avoid.
If homeowners are cutting back on TVs, then a new car is unlikely to be high on the shopping list. At 409p Inchcape, the car dealer, is off from last summer's 593p high, but the rise from January's low of 326p may now seem overdone. Take profits.
Silverjet
Silverjet's takeover discussions might have ignited the business class airline's shares yesterday but investors tempted to jump on board should have their radar on events of the past few months. US premium-only carrier Maxjet Airways filed for bankruptcy late last year. This week Oasis Hong Kong Airlines, a cut-price long-haul carrier, filed for administration just 17 months after launching.
Last week Silverjet was to report its first monthly profit but admitted it failed to break even. Billionaire brothers David and Simon Reuben loaned Luton-based Silverjet £10 million before Christmas but when the opportunity came this year to convert their loan to equity they declined. In an insolvency, loan-holders get repaid before shareholders.
Silverjet floated at 111p in June 2006, climbed to 201p in March last year and has been in a steep and steady decline since. Any suitor knows they can afford to offer a cut-price deal as the business continues to struggle with its long-haul airline model.
Silverjet shares ended yesterday up 5 p to 21p. Investors still on board may want to head for the exit doors now and cut their losses. Potential new investors risk turbulence before, at the very best, a crash landing into the arms of a suitor. Avoid.
Primary HP
With shares in commercial property companies on the slide over heightened fears for rental growth, Primary Health Properties may have offered a small respite for a battered sector.
Figures out yesterday indicated that the provider of family doctors' surgeries raised its annualised rent roll from £14.5 million to £16.2 million between the end of last June and December 31. A £50 million loan facility arranged last month should allow Primary to meet its target of growing the portfolio, either by buying rivals or by organic development, by £175 million to £500 million by the end of next year.
With a government commitment to expand primary healthcare in a market short of purpose-built properties, Primary's expansion plan seems a fair risk. Its buildings are let on 21-year leases with rent effectively underwritten by the NHS, meaning that it can cope with gearing running at 56 per cent.
However, Primary is not immune to the effects of the credit crunch, which has ravaged commercial property capital values. Its assets were marked down £12.4 million over the six months, prompting an 18 per cent decline in net asset value (NAV) to 370p a share. At 285p, up 13p yesterday, the shares are still at a 23 per cent discount to NAV, indicating that another fall in capital values is priced in. With a yield of 5 per cent, hold on.
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