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Wall Street started betting on an emergency US interest rate cut today as it slammed mortgage market reforms from US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson amid news that housing foreclosures jumped 60 per cent last month.
Mr Paulson was accused of failing to address the credit crunch as a hedge fund of private equity group Carlyle teetered on the brink of collapse, a rival fund was issued with a default notice, the dollar hit a 12-year low of 100.40 against the yen, oil hit a record $110.34 a barrel, and gold struck $1,000 an ounce.
Against the pound the dollar was $2.03.
Fears of fresh waves of credit crunch fallout sent a chill through equity markets, with Asia, London and Wall Street plunging.
The Dow Jones industrial average fell 200.10 points to 11.910.10 in within minutes of opening, while London's FTSE 100 index of leading shares dived 133.7 points to 5,642.7.
But both began to rally as expectation grew that the Fed would not wait until next week to cut rates, but would take emergency action this week.
The Dow Jones also responded to a proposed rescue plan for the US mortgage and housing markets in which the Federal Housing Administration would be permitted to provide up to $300 billion in new guarantees to help refinance at-risk borrowers into viable mortgages.
Put forward by US House Financial Services Committee Chairman, Barney Frank, under the terms of the deal the existing mortgage lender or holder would receive a payment from the proceeds of a new Federal Housing Association loan, in exchange for the acceptance of a substantial writedown of principal, “if the restructured loan would result in terms that the borrower can reasonably be expected to pay.”
Mr Frank said the proposed program could refinance up to 2 million loans.
On January 22, the Fed imposed an emergency cut of 0.75 percentage points in the cost of borrowing to 3.5 per cent, then reduced the rate by a further half-point at its scheduled meeting eight days later.
The Fed is scheduled to meet next on March 18 and had been widely expected to reduce the cost of borrowing by at least half a percentage point to 3 per cent. Last week, grim job data prompted some economists to urge the central bank to cut by three quarters of a percentage point.
Earlier this week, the US Federal Reserve made $200 billion worth of safe US Treasury bonds available in a co-ordinated Central Bank move to shore-up financial markets.
Chris Whalen, at the Wall Street consultancy, Institutional Risk Analytics, said: "We need the Treasury Secretary to focus on current issues. We thought as an ex-Goldmans man he would have been more on the ball. What's clear today is that he is just another bureaucrat."
The Paulson plan is designed to prevent a repeat of the collapse of one fifth of the US mortgage market.
Mr Paulson proposes strong nationwide licensing standards for those who sold home loans to people on low incomes with poor credit history and were likely to default.
He is also threatening to curb the dividends paid to shareholders to ensure stronger balance sheets for banks.
The California-based RealtyTrac said today that US home foreclosure filings jumped 60 percent and bank seizures more than doubled in February as rates on adjustable mortgages rose and property owners were unable to sell or refinance amid falling.
This emerged as a Dutch-listed fund owned by Carlyle, the US private equity giant, appeared to be heading for liquidation after failing to pay back $16 billion of debt to its lenders and the US Thornburg Mortgage group received a default notice from Morgan Stanley after failing to meet a $9 million margin call.
Ratings agency Standard & Poor's said sub-prime mortgage write-downs could reach $285 billion but an end to the write-downs is now in sight for large financial institutions.
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I have been saying this since Christmas. Cherry in London is an absolute optimist. The world economy is headed for a depression every bit as bad as the 30's but because of the intertwining and interdependency of today's national economies it will take much longer to resolve.
Tighten your belts we are in for a 15 year depression, more clear evidence that climate change is virtually irreversible, resource depletion (not just gas - water - food) and the wars and strife that go with it.
You cannot run a world in deficit for 30 years and not expect a reckoning to come. The 'reckoning realisation' had just tentatively got under way in the 90's but was reversed by clearly dangerous policies. Now in God we must all trust because that's all these idiots have left us with.
richard Jones, Athens, Greece
Well done for Ahmed Ali, Male, Maldives for pointing out the root problem for the current economic mess. Pure greed and nothing else. I used to work for a bank (within credit operations.) and I could see all this a mile off, people unable to pay their credit cards yet still spending and having their credit limits increased and watching business around the world borrowing stupid amounts of money, to make more money (aol & time warner deal being one.) However, what's really compounded the situation is the war in Iraq. Don't be naive, the war in Iraq and the problems we now face are joined together. Higher oil prices have a direct effect on family, city and state budgets; they also led to a drop in GDP for the US. When interest rates finally rose in response, hundreds of thousands of home owners found that they were unable to keep up payments, this has put the US in recession and brought down Northern Rock with other banks having to go cap in hand for extra funds. Fools, the lot of them
richard, gibralter,
Paulson is way way out of his depth...you need a Greenspan type with gravitas and obfuscation to steady the markets.
Having said that, US fundamentals are awful.
This could just be the start of the seismic shift that has been long in the coming to correct the truly cosmic macro issues that the US econmy has.
Should we be affraid?
In a word: YES.
kambiz shahri, Pretoria, South Africa
Bush has already lost both of his elective wars, financed on the never-never, and now he's taking the US economy with him into the abyss.Other people, us included, will pay the price.
If Bush has invested in Halliburton/KBR, Blackwater, the US "defence" industry, and oil, he can smirk. Other people will lose their pensions and their houses, and it will have been a very bad decision to have privatised everything that moves, including education, health and welfare: All we'll get is Victorian levels of destitution and the breakdown of most of the infrastructure as all the PFI schemes fold as well. We could all have spent the trillions on something sensible, or saved them for the future. But next, everyone will cast around for scapegoats.
Julia Iskandar, London, England
The choice is foreclosing and putting thousands of families on the street or protecting homeowners and ordinary investors and letting the speculators/financial institutions go to the wall. Once the fog has cleared and the true extent of the financial industry's losses are known then it will be time to rewrite the rules of banking and investment
peter fieldman, paris, france
The way to resolve the two primary causes of our current crisis is actually quite simple. One is the solution that must never be mentioned or discussed, taking the Private Banks out of the money creation and distribution scenario. 5 Presidents including Lincoln and Jackson used this solution and immediately solved the financial crisis of their eras, paid off the national debt in3 years or so, and in some eras, did away with income tax. The USA has so much natural wealth that if there is a fairer distribution, not a single citizen need be the financial slave of a bank, ever. So, PLEASE, take the 3.5 hours necessary to see the internet film on Google, "The Money Masters." Before you can hit these bankers in the face with the custard pie, you have to learn their methodology, their history, and their motives. Second, search Google for info on the compressed air car and then demand that WE manufacture it in the USA. It is no pollution, 1/10th the cost to run and uses no fossil fuels.
victor compton, Cherbourg, France
Maybe the US needs to call in the IMF (International Monetary Fund)?
It helped Asian countries get back on track in the 1990's.
Hugo van Randwyck, London, UK
Good money after bad. They should know that everyone knows putting a band aid on a wound the size of a continent - will end in tears and deepen the scepticism of investors. They need a radical overhaul of their practices - less emphasis on money, more on people and productivity.
Stephen Pain, Odense, Denmark
The dollar and US stock markets are going into a black hole (as I predicted some six months ago) and taking the rest of the world with them. When the dollar is no longer the world's reserve currency and oil is priced in euros, it's free fall time. When that happens the US will no longer be able to afford its huge military. Way to go, George. Future prediction: Think devolution; Hawaii, Alaska, Texas, Californian West Coast, New England â¦. Trade deficit? Nothing to do with us.
Andrew Milner, Yokohama, Japan
This is what happens when you try and avoid having recessions at all costs. Low rates blow bubbles which eventually go pop. We got bailed out the last bubble by blowing a housing and credit bubble with low rates. What kind of bubble can you blow now with banks who cant mark to market their "assets" because that would lead to Insolvency. Only time and government leaving the markets to heal themselfs will help.Dont let the guys on Cnbc or the newpapers tell you its a great time to buy, like they did early in the bear market of 2000-2002. Be careful
craig keith, Dundee, Tayside
The US wants a protectionist series of policies to restrict imports, but demands the world buys their goods. It is about time the world starts to seriously realign trade relations that gives the US the isolation it wants. The rest of us can then stop worrying about the US economy or its Smoke & Mirrors style of asset valuations.
Jonathan Mills, Brighton,
Well, duh. - pump money into the 'economy' and the finanial institutions just mop it up and wait for more, while pushing for an interest rate cut, rather than trying to get their own houses in order. Turn off the spiggot and let them sort it out themselves.
In the UK, the banks have already whacked up the rates on the mortgage products to scrape back the cash they've lost - it's our cash, they've lost it, and we're the ones paying for it. Lets have a windfall tax on them next budget.
Poppy, Reading, UK
"US jobs outsourced"
I hear theres plenty of jobs in the US Army, more are wanted to bomb and occupy other nations.
"Interest Rate Cuts"
Unfortunetly even a zero rate won't help the US to growth if the banks don't lend to each other. Don't worry about the Fed as its owned by top Wall Sreet Banks.
Zak, London, UK
This has been coming for some time. Cheap money with no home forced investors into more and more riskier deals. It is the finacial services which need to learn a lesson from all this. Pity its realy the consumer who is going to pay the price.
Richard, Reading, UK
Most people don't have wealth. A house is somewhere to live and a job is where you're at the mercy of the corporation. Trust me, here in the UK we're not like the Germans, where they're now falling back onto millions of euros worth of manufactured goods being snapped up by the new europeans/Chinese.
Greed is exactly what drove the common man/woman into thinking that he/she deserves to be wealthy.
I lost everything due to long-term unemployment so I've been through my personal recession but it doesn't mean I take pleasure in the plight of others - even though it should've been up to them to prepare for a downturn.
Jack, London,
This looks like a race to the bottom, between the fed and the markets. I hope the fed wins.
Costas, Cyprus,
So what will happen when the Credit Default Swaps market failure begins to surface at some unknown point in the future?
There is nothing that can be done now, not via government interventions in any case.....
Buckle up!!!
Lloyd, UK,
From toys to machines, all the hard labour jobs were outsourced to China. Now all the office jobs from accounting to IT are being outsourced to other countries. What is left for US people to work and earn?
Raj, London,
"One sincerely hopes that our pension funds are in no way or means invested in these hedge funds otherwise we have all truly arrived in hell on a hand cart.
Michael Lewis, St Albans, Herts"
I think you will find that pension funds have indeed got exposure to sub-prime and Alt-A asset-backed securities. 2008 is likely to be the year when the skeletons come out of their closets..
Andy, London, Uk
Putting sticking plaster on a gaping wound is not going to help The Fed tried but to be quite honest I think they have spooked the markets and investors even more. Everything will have to find its natural level....much lower before this settles down. Banks will have to give moratoriums on debt as will mortgage lenders to prevent a depression not seen since the 1930's if we are to pull out of this. Everyone is going to be affected. The Chancellor crossing his fingers yesterday was ridiculous, he delivered a budget which will deliver us all to disaster. The only good thing to come out of it will be the end of this Government. Its going to be a long haul
cherry, london, uk
Well it looks as if God didn't like the Idea of the USA being international bully boy Police man after all. I was beginning to wonder what would put a stop to it all and here it is. How many Trillion have the Neo Cons blew and I mean blew literally. The democratic process can't get them out of the middle east but this will. So there is a God after all.
Mark, Gateshead,
It's interesting to see that the same engine that helped the American (and it could be said, world) economy power through the past five to ten years (Private Equity) could now be responsible for it's "collapse".
Hassan Azam, Banbury , Oxfordshire
I know we can just borrow our way out right?
Matt, U.K,
One sincerely hopes that our pension funds are in no way or means invested in these hedge funds otherwise we have all truly arrived in hell on a hand cart.
Michael Lewis, St Albans, Herts
Nice to see all the world economy experts making comments here! why would ditching one currency and moving to another standard change fluctuations driven by market factors, you are just moving the problem to another 'indicator', also of course while dollar owners lose wealth EURO/YEN owners gain wealth when spending in the states, plus what was the last hedge fund a government propped up?
Tony, Maldon,
Why dont we ditch the dollar and go with the Euro or Sterling?
Phill , The Wirral, England
Stop spending tax payers money - let the markets find their new level and then inject funds where it's needed - proper investment, not proping up hedge funds for a few weeks.
Ken Wood, Fleet, UK
These are all man-made phenomena. Why the panic? It's not the end of the world, is it? It's all right to lose some wealth...which to some of us is completely meaningless. It's time to realise that greed isn't everything!
Ahmed Ali, Male, Maldives
Hang onto yer hats boys - this is where it starts getting interesting.
If next weeks US interest rate cut fails, then it's downhill all the way !
Russell, Yeovil,