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If Cynthia Carroll has won plaudits in the City for her dealmaking skills, it is not so much for the $9 billion (£4.6 billion) of acquisitions that she has made since taking over as chief executive of Anglo American last March as for the aplomb with which she delivered yesterday's surprise agreement with the South African Government.
The former Alcan executive enlivened the company's full-year results meeting with the announcement that the world's third-largest miner, and the biggest in South Africa, had secured “new order” mining rights for platinum, coal, iron ore and base metals from the Department of Minerals and Energy.
Although those rights do nothing more than entrench Anglo's existing position on its home turf, it is seen as a significant breakthrough, given the perception of political risk surrounding the company amid South Africa's adoption of Black Economic Empowerment legislation.
In comparison, Anglo's numbers appeared standard stuff. Earnings per share, up 18 per cent, and the total dividend, raised by 15 per cent, were exactly in line with forecasts. Further, the company's decision not to return additional capital through a special dividend - with $2.7 billion still to spend on its share buybacks, it is the only miner now repurchasing stock - was much as foretold. Base metals, where profits were up 17 per cent to $3.1 billion, was the star performer, alongside platinum group metals, where lower volumes were offset by higher prices.
Looking ahead, the company expects commodity demand to remain strong in 2008, and said that the value of its project pipeline had almost doubled to $41 billion. Power shortages in South Africa notwithstanding, Anglo looks well placed in the near-term, given that half of next year's forecast profits come from two metals where demand is strongest - platinum and iron ore, where contract prices for the year beginning April 1 are expected to rise by 65 per cent. However, with Anglo left out of the current round of large-cap mergers and acquisitions in the sector, it is hard, outside of commodity prices, to see what will take the shares higher for now; Rio Tinto, for example, remains a better play on iron ore. Although Chinese interest in Africa should underpin sentiment, as should Anglo's status as a potential take-out target, the shares, at £31.61, or 11 times 2008 earnings, are up with events. Hold.
Pendragon
Britain's biggest car dealer might stand as an object lesson in why a stock should never be bought for the dividend alone: shareholders entranced by the prospect of a 4p-a-share payout have seen the value of their investment fall 73 per cent from last year's peak.
Although 2008 is unlikely to prove as bad as 2007 (when Pendragon made no fewer than three profit warnings) and the dividend appears safe for now - giving a prospective yield of 12 per cent - the shares have little to commend them.
In its favour, Pendragon spelt out yesterday that it needed to increase profit per vehicle by only £35 to £335 to meet current-year profit forecasts. Further, £9.2 million of losses last year relating to dealership closures will not recur. Yet the margin pressures that undid Pendragon in 2007 - profit per vehicle fell from £385 to £300, amid heavy discounting of new vehicles - show no signs of abating. Car production volumes this year are forecast to be only marginally lower, so heavy price incentives from manufacturers are likely to persist. The credit crunch also means that, while list prices may have come down, financing is more expensive and harder to come by. In the meantime, Pendragon's high fixed costs mean that it remains susceptible to falling volumes.
Next month will provide a key test: March accounts for nearly 20 per cent of annual registrations. But with £332 million of debt - which would appear to make rumours of takeover interest unlikely - Pendragon, at 33p, or 6 times 2008 earnings, is still best avoided.
M&C Hotels
For shareholders who have been waiting for Millennium & Copthorne (M&C) to fill the gaps in its board - it is still without a permanent chief executive and finance director - yesterday's full-year results will have come as a disappointment.
Yet, as the near-3 per cent rise in the shares suggests, the hotel operator's numbers provided consolation. Revenues were nearly 8 per cent higher at £670 million, helped by strong demand in Singapore, London and New York, and both earnings per share and the total dividend were up by an above-forecast 47 per cent. Further, like InterContinental Hotels Group on Tuesday, M&C said that it had yet to see any signs of a downturn: revenue per available room, the key industry measure, was up 11 per cent in January, roughly the same level as that achieved in the last quarter of 2007. M&C said that it was too early to assess the repercussions of a slowdown in the American economy.
On that front, M&C's strong presence in Asia - which accounts for 30 per cent of sales and 55 per cent of operating profits - provides comfort: new hotels in Bangkok and Thailand are soon to be followed by three openings in China, including Beijing, and a futuristic apartment development in Kuala Lumpur.
However, as the rally that accompanied the brief tenure of Peter Papas, M&C's former chief executive, showed, it is the potential for restructuring - M&C is the sector's sole remaining asset play - that excites investors. With such an option appearing to have receded for now and the US outlook uncertain, M&C, at 415p, or 15 times 2008 earnings, can be no more than a hold.
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