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Major banks on both sides of the Atlantic are braced for more heavy losses this year because of their exposure to the deepening subprime and credit crisis.
In the UK banks including Barclays, Royal Bank of Scotland and HSBC are facing "major trading losses".
In the US, large major banks and brokerages will suffer additional writedowns of more than $10 billion in the fourth quarter as deteriorating credit trends continue to undercut the value of subprime mortgages and related securities
Analysts at Goldman Sachs predicted today that profits at Barclays Capital, the UK bank's debt focused investment bank, will tumble 40 per cent year-on-year to just £583 million in the second half.
The Goldman team argued that revenues and profits at BarCap, which is a big player in the structured credit markets and is seen as heavily exposed to a downturn, face an "uncertain outlook".
In New York, Deutsche analyst Mike Mayo said the bulk of the write-downs will happen at Citigroup and Merrill Lynch.
He estimates each company will have about $4 billion in writedowns in the current quarter, mainly because of their exposure to subprime mortgages and collateralized debt obligations.
Merrill shocked markets last week when it wrote-down $8.4 billion in the third quarter and still needs to work through more $20 billion in exposure to subprime loans and CDOs. The bank's chief executive Stan O'Neal has now been ousted.
Mr Mayo said banks will need to bolster their balance sheets because reserves to loans (1.2 per cent) are the lowest since 1983. But as banks bring capital ratios back to historical levels that could shave 20 per cent off profits.
Meanwhile in London, Sandy Chen at Panmure Gordon said there was a "clear path that leads from the current turmoil in credit markets to major trading losses for the UK bank with US mortgage and global markets exposure".
Mr Chen, who has already cut his profits forecasts and price targets for every UK bank he covers, cited HSBC, Barclays and RBS as having direct exposure to mortgage-related businesses in the US.
He said UK banks with indirect exposure through structured products such as credit derivatives, could also be hit.
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I've been saving for a house. If I'm lucky it'll be buy one, get one free.
A long time coming but, well, at least I can get on the property ladder at a reasonable price.
tobias, Oxford,
The current problems stem from the race for a quick buck rather than a long term investment strategy. Financial markets need to return to a transparent, controlled environment instead of casinos where derivatives, LBO's, hedge funds and other sophisticated risky ventures, often using secretive offshore funds, have been allowed to proliferate to the detriment of corporations, employees and small shareholders alike.
If the "pass the parcel" mortgage game has left financial institutions bearing substantial losses there would be no need to panic if they restructured loans so that over the long term they would recoup their investment, albeit with lower returns, and borrowers would not be forced out of their homes.
The economy does not rely on the antics of either Wall Street or the City of London. There are millions of medium to small companies out there who keep the economy afloat.
"Labour is the superior of capital and deserves much the higher recognition" A Lincoln 1861
peter fieldman, Paris, France
In 1987 the joke was "how do you buy a small American bank? Buy a large one and wait." 20 years later the spotty traders still have not been tought the lesson by their elders and its all come around again.
Mark Russell, Limoges, France
Is there such a loan as a subprime, a piece of paper passed from lender to loanee entitled SUBPRIME.?
I suspect not , its just invention of the incompetent money loan industry.
Shame really because the British media have come to believe such a thing exists,another
awful Americanism.
wayne, huntingdon, Cambridgeshire
How may more bank losses will the british taxpayer have to underwrite???????
That is a question EVERY british worker should be asking themselves.
I voting with my feet and withdrawing all my saving from British banks and buying gold and foreign currency. I'd advise others to do the same and be quick about it.
If you can.....emigrate!
NuLabour debt slave, Redhill, UK
It's interesting that, given yet more forecast losses, two of the UK banks mentioned in your report take such an agressive stance in collecting money from insolvent customers, preferring to force people to pay more than they can afford via unqualified "debt advisers" rather than consider sustainable repayment programmes that are monitored by qualified professionals.
Sarah, London,
This is the best buying opportunity of a lifetime, buy Barclays shares and wear diamonds.They are prime for a take over.
The banks have not lost money they have just made provisions, these write downs will be clawed back as I do not see property being valueless in the states.
Think about it this is a panic designed by accountants for accountants. Yes there is no market to mark the CDO's against, but hold to maturity and these CDO's will generate returns. Therefore they have a value.
Purps, Chemlsford, England
The skys falling in! The skys falling in!
No its not.
Its just part of the cycle.
Graeme Brown, Milton Keynes, UK
So the Federal Reserve poured $41 billion into the financial system. As US banks announce hige write-offs, this affects their capital reserves. So they borrow from central banks rather than sell their assets. But why should taxpayers (through central banks) finance the losses of financial institutions. Last August \ September central banks (mainly the European Central Bank and the Fed Reserve) pumped over $450billion into the system arguably to stop the system collapsing. That money is now "hot money" pushing up the prices of gold, oil and other commodities. Central bankers never learn their lesson, if institutions make bad investments then they should go to the wall (a view taken by by Governor King of the Bank of England).
Gita, London, England
Every time you think you have made a personal mistake in life or exercised poor judgement, you should be heartened by what has happened to all these banks, who have some very clever people working for them. To have been so careless with valuing all these bits of paper is surely not what banking is about. It beggers belief what greed can do.
Diddly Do, iverpool,
The crash is coming and about time to! It was becoming so boring listening to all those property stories across dinner tables.
The cycle of peaks and troughs in the UK housing markets will always happen. The downturn was always going to happen.
Lance Harrington, Canterbury, Kent, UK