Sarah Butler :Tempus
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There is always a frisson of excitement, shall we say Schadenfreude, when the glamorous head boy or team captain gets dumped by their girlfriend. It is so irritating watching someone get everything so effortlessly right.
So imagine the glee among Tesco’s competitors at the recent flurry of announcements about resignations from its senior management team.
Yesterday Keith Down, commercial finance director, was the latest to announce his departure – to become finance director of pub company JD Wetherspoon.
A few years ago, senior level departures at Tesco were almost unheard of. Headhunters struggled to prise out well remunerated staff who knew they were working at the most exciting and clearly dominant retailer in the UK.
But in the past three years a significant number of the supermarket’s top 50 managers have left, sparking fears of a “brain drain”.
It could be argued that Tesco has a real problem. Growth in the UK business is now mostly about keeping a well-oiled machine running, after the excitement of launching new businesses such as convenience stores, internet shopping and non-food-only stores.
For those bright young things not interested in settling overseas, where the bulk of Tesco’s future growth will surely come from, there are fewer opportunities to really make a mark.
Space at the top table is also limited, with Sir Terry Leahy, chief executive, not likely to be heading for the exit in the next five years and only two of Tesco’s eight executive directors over 50.
Meanwhile, Tesco’s supermarket rivals in the UK have got their act together and perhaps can offer more interesting opportunities.
Outwardly Tesco has brushed away concerns, pointing out that it is a large business, and so a few departures are not unusual.
Tesco is constantly breeding management talent and has one of the best training schemes in the country. Behind the bluster, a company as thorough as Tesco must be already working on the problem of how to retain its best staff.
The good news is that with a global reach and plenty of resources, Sir Terry has several more years, to prepare for succession so it is perhaps too early for investors to get concerned.
Of much more immediate import will be events in the next two months. By the end of October the Competition Commission is expected to publish preliminary findings on the power of the supermarkets, and Tesco may find its room for manoeuvre in the UK restricted more as a result. It has been resourceful in finding new opportunities such as its non-food-only stores and the buyout of Dobbies. The latest market share data show Tesco recovering from its soggy summer but the supermarket will have to be increasingly creative to find growth on home turf.
At the same time, Tesco is embarking on Sir Terry’s American adventure. The first Fresh & Easy stores open early next month and 50 are planned by March. The US has been a graveyard for UK retailers and delivering success will be a considerable draw on Tesco’s management resources.
The next few months could be a tricky period for Tesco and the shares are not particularly cheap at about 20 times expected earnings. Still, Sir Terry and his team have proved slick operators. Hold.
Alfred McAlpine
Two of Alfred McAlpine’s largest shareholders are trying to push the group into talks with Carillion, the construction rival that has made an indicative bid approach of 570p a share.
Given the difficult year McAlpine has had, it looks inevitable that it will fall prey to the much larger group, despite its insistence that the offer materially undervalues it.
In February the group’s reputation was dented by the exposure of £23 million of accounting irregularities. At the time, the company saw a fifth of its value wiped away and while the shares have been recovering, the problems have opened the door to a potential bid. What is more surprising is that it has taken so long for one to emerge.
Fresh from taking over Mowlem last year, Carillion has made a preliminary approach that now has the backing of some hefty investors. Schroder, New Star Asset Management and Standard Life Investments all back the deal.
In the construction sector, hostile deals are a nono. In a business where everyone works together – one day the boss, the next day the hired hand - a hostile takeover would be unworkable. Another reason for the shareholders to push the two parties closer together is because construction companies require forensic due diligence. Carillion did discover some unwanted nasties in Mowlem, which resulted in a £95 million provision, and it would be embarrassing for something similar to happen here.
Of course, the ideal scenario for investors is if one or more rivals show up to challenge Carillion. However, the fact that no other bidder has emerged since the accounting irregularities were revealed suggests Carillion has the field to itself.
A glance at the shareholder register also shows that the two companies have many investors in common. Given that 52 per cent of the leading Carillion shareholders own McAlpine stock and 38 per cent of the big McAlpine investors own Carillion, it is likely that a deal will be done. But McAlpine must think of the many shareholders, not just the few with loud voices.
The synergies between the two companies are strong, particularly in the business services field that provides outsourced property management to the likes of HBOS and Sainsbury’s. McAlpine’s management are doing a decent job of tidying up their own backyard and they will want to use their progress to try to push Carillion’s first offer higher. Hold.
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