Both financial data and sentiment among chief executives seem to point to the economy starting to recover soon. If this is the case, then business leaders must act now, for those who wait for the recovery to be irrefutable will be those who lose out on the opportunities that are likely to present themselves in the next 18 months.

The invasion of Iraq illustrates the point: everyone concentrated so much on winning the war that failure to plan for the next stage meant that the peace was lost. Many businesses will make the same mistake; oddly, many chief executives have said to me that their “worst-case scenario” is that the recovery happens quickly. Having cut so deep at the recession’s outset, they do not have the manpower to respond if there is a fast upturn.

Great generals — and great business leaders — think about future battles, leaving the current battles to their deputies to win. Business leaders, whether running FTSE giants or family firms, need to trust their deputies to get them through the last legs of this recession while they set about planning how to win the recovery. Many don’t trust their managers, which is a failing in their own leadership.

Before a major assault, generals rest their troops, train them for the mission ahead and plan how they will achieve victory. The same applies in business. Now there is an austere culture of long hours, weekend working and penny-pinching — to reflect the crisis we have endured. However, you need refreshed, motivated and energetic executives for success, not the tired and scarred. Make sure that they have a holiday this summer; retrain them when they return; pull some of your best people out of the present battle; don’t call meetings at weekends; and have a break yourself. Make sure that you are recruiting the best talent now while these people are still available.

Most of all, you need a vision of what future success will be for your businesses, one that can be clearly communicated in a way that excites your people. The next 18 months will be critical. Having a clear vision of where you want to be in five years will allow you to feel confident about what must happen between now and the end of next year.

It is particularly important to identify the key areas where your business needs to make a breakthrough to achieve this success, whether it is a successful product innovation, a breakthrough idea, a new market or a takeover.

In 2011, some executives will be lauded as great leaders for how well their business has come through the recession. It will seem that they made all the right moves at the right time and achieved extraordinary success. A few may have been lucky, but most will have won the recovery by being ready with a clear strategy and having an energetic team implementing it, as well as accurate intelligence so that they can adapt to future markets.

Many executives say that they cannot plan yet because they “don’t know what will happen”. Taking well-judged risks is part of leadership and now is the time for big decisions. Inaction is a decision in its own right: it may prove a costly one for those businesses faced with bolder rivals.

• Damian McKinney is chief executive of McKinney Rogers, the business performance consultants

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