Go back to The End of Lawyers?

By his own admission, David Morley has spent a lot of time thinking about the future of the legal market. As managing partner of one of the world’s top law firms, it is to be expected that he should have strong opinions about how lawyers' roles may change.

Morley believes the legal market is already heading towards the emergence of a “global elite” of between six and ten firms with the geographic reach and depth of expertise to advise on most complicated matters in any major jurisdiction.

This group, he predicts, will comprise firms of more than 1,000 partners and will still be substantially, if not completely, owned by the people who work in them.

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Old identities may disappear and new ones may emerge, but Morley believes the dominant names will be "mostly familiar". He refuses to say who, but naturally he believes his firm, Allen & Overy, will be among them.

The genesis of these global giants has already begun. Study the market, Morley says, and “we can already see a gap emerging between this group and the next tier”.

One thing Morley says is bound to happen is that there will be further US-UK mergers. “It is inevitable that there will be more trans-Atlantic tie-ups," he says. "The key question is not when, but who.”

Asked if Allen & Overy would consider a US merger, Morley is emphatic: “Absolutely. And we’ve always said that. Our strategy does not depend on that [a US merger], but if the right opportunity comes along we have always said we would be prepared to look at it very seriously.”

Morley predicts that a 1,000-partner practice is also inevitable.

“When I was first made a partner there were just under 100 of us and people used to worry whether a firm that broke the 100-partner barrier would be unmanageable,” he says.

“I don’t think size by itself is a key limiting factor in the evolution of a legal, or any other business. What matters is whether you’ve got the right governance structures, systems and people in place to manage it. With that, there is no size beyond which a law firm can grow.”

But even if a global elite should emerge, Morley believes the so-called "second tier" of City firms will survive, and prosper.

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