Skegness will become the new Antibes at the heart of a North Sea Riviera as unbearably hot summers drive tourists away from Mediterranean resorts, the European Commission forecast yesterday while announcing new targets to combat greenhouse gases.

Areas such as the Baltic Sea and the North Sea coast of Britain could be invaded by millions of sun-seekers if temperatures continue to rise along projected lines, the Commission said in a wideranging climate-change impact assessment.

But Southern European countries will experience devastating environmental effects, from droughts and fires to lower crop yields and more deaths from heat-related conditions.

Yesterday’s report cautioned: “The pattern of summer conditions may well change dramatically in the course of this century as a result of climate change. The zone with excellent conditions, which is currently located around the Mediterranean, in particular for beach tourism, will shift towards the north, perhaps as far as the North Sea or the Baltic Sea.”

The Commission’s report predicts that rising temperatures will cause the deaths of an additional 11,000 people in Europe every year within ten years, even if yesterday’s proposals are acted upon swiftly.

José Manuel Barroso, the Commission President, said yesterday that the answer was for Europe to lead the call for an international cut of 30 per cent in greenhouse gas emissions by 2020, as revealed by The Times on Monday. He confirmed that he had discussed this plan with President Bush and the new Democrat leaders of Congress on Monday, and was optimistic that the US was ready to take action, despite rejecting the Kyoto Protocol.

“I personally believe the US will change and that we will be much more ambitious in the future,” Mr Barroso said yesterday. “Europe must lead the world into a postindustrial revolution — the development of a low-carbon economy.”

Fears of instability in fuel supplies — heightened this week by Russia’s decision to close down a vital oil pipeline to Europe through Belarus — will also force the EU to step up the search for alternative sources, including targets of 20 per cent for renewable energy and 10 per cent for vehicle fuel from biofuels.

The proposed EU energy policy leaves the decision to expand nuclear power to individual states, but Mr Barroso seemed to emphasise his personal support for it. He described nuclear power as “one of the cheapest sources of low-carbon energy” with stable costs, and said that any country reducing nuclear power must make up for it by increasing other low-carbon processes.

Regardless of the success of plans to persuade other countries to agree to 30 per cent emissions cuts from 1990 levels, Mr Barroso proposed that EU leaders agree on a unilateral 20 per cent target at their meeting in March as a commitment to limiting the global temperature rise to no more than 2C (3.6F) above preindustrial levels.

The Government was delighted that Europe’s proposed energy plan put a strong emphasis on combating climate change after this was first proposed under Britain’s EU presidency at the Hampton Court summit in 2005.

But pressure groups said they were disappointed that the Commission did not go further. Greenpeace said that only a cut of 30 per cent in CO2 emissions could keep global temperatures below 2C, a target already adopted by Britain.

Jim Footner, a Greenpeace UK campaigner, said: “Tony Blair continually makes the argument that the only way to tackle climate change is through international agreements. And yet the UK has allowed the rest of the EU to take a backward step by failing to set targets that will actually address the climate crisis.”

Catherine Pearce, an international climate co-ordinator at Friends of the Earth, said: “If the EU is serious about tackling climate change it must make far greater cuts in its carbon dioxide emissions than proposed. The proposed 20 per cent cut does not demonstrate any intention by the EU to stay below the 2C limit.”

Officials in Skegness are confident that their town can cope with growing tourist numbers as temperatures rise. The population of 60,000 swells to 600,000 during summer, with temperatures last September consistently in the high 30s, the highest since records began in 1659.

A spokesman for the district council said: “If the Lincolnshire coast is to become the new Riviera, this would be wonderful for the local economy.

“Skegness has a fantastic theatre, which attracts some of the top names, as well as Fantasy Island, which claims the biggest rollercoaster in Europe.

“We have the highest concentration of caravans in Europe and some of the best beach donkeys in the country.”

The proposals

20 per cent cut in EU greenhouse gas emissions by 2020, rising to 30 per cent if other developed countries follow suit

60-80 per cent cut in emissions by 2050

Countries make own decisions on nuclear, any decommissioning matched by low-carbon alternatives

All new coal power stations to be fitted with carbon capture and storage

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