The one thing passengers have been able to rely upon since rail privatisation 13 years ago is that ticket prices always go up.

Yet from January 2010, a million passengers across Britain are likely to pay less when renewing their season tickets.

The thought of train companies raking in less cash will ease the pain for those who struggle to find anywhere to lean, much less sit, on their grim morning commute.

However, the consequences of rail price deflation will extend far beyond the balance sheets of a handful of public transport companies.

The Government will argue that companies can cope with less income because their costs are also falling. Yet many costs, especially staffing, are hard to reduce.

Plans by three London commuter train companies to cut 1,000 jobs have already prompted the RMT rail union to ballot for the first major rail strikes for more than a decade.

Companies are obliged by their franchise contracts to meet minimum standards on many aspects of service, such as train frequency, punctuality and overcrowding.

But anything not actually bolted down by the contract is likely to be sacrificed as the companies struggle to cope with the double whammy of declining passenger numbers and lower income from each remaining passenger.

Off-peak trains will be halved in length to save on servicing costs; ticket offices will be closed for most of the day and passengers will begin to see Ryanair-style hidden charges, such as fees for booking seats. Nevertheless, the biggest loser will not be the long-suffering rail passenger but the longer-suffering taxpayer.

The Department for Transport has already admitted that five train franchises are in financial trouble. If the recession deepens, at least one parent company is likely to cut its losses and hand back the keys to all its train franchises.

Trains will still run because the DfT will become the “operator of last resort”. But the billion-pound premiums promised by several companies for their franchises will evaporate. Bidders for replacement franchises will offer far less, or even demand a subsidy.

With less income from companies and no chance of sustaining last year’s 7 per cent growth in passengers, the Government is likely to be forced to abandon its plan to shift more of the burden of paying for the railways onto passengers.

At present, the £10 billion annual cost of the network is evenly split between passengers and taxpayers. Ministers stated in 2007 that, by 2014, they wanted passengers to pay 75 per cent and taxpayers 25 per cent.

The cost of bringing a smile to every commuter next year - within months of a general election - will be borne by the taxpayer.

Times Recommends

• Minister in talks with Saudis to protect creditors
• Premier Inn hits back in £29-a-room row
• Bankers hit back at 'populist' bonus supertax