The future of road pricing is in the balance, with towns and cities across Britain awaiting the result of Manchester’s referendum tomorrow before deciding whether to press ahead with pay-as-you-drive schemes.

The level of response to the postal-only vote in areas of the city where congestion charging is unpopular, such as Trafford and Tameside, has alarmed supporters of the scheme.

By midday yesterday the response was much lower in the inner city — where residents would benefit most from the £2.7 billion worth of investment in new tram lines and extra buses and trains.

More than 1.9 million people in Greater Manchester have been balloted on a plan to charge drivers up to £5 a day. The Government hopes that Manchester will act as the guinea-pig for the rest of the country and has pledged to reward a “yes” vote with £1.5 billion of public money to upgrade public transport in the city.

A “no” vote would be highly embarrassing for the Government, which has created a £2 billion fund dedicated to supporting local charging schemes.

Cambridge, Bristol and Leeds are considering schemes but are unlikely to proceed if the result in Manchester, which is to be announced at midday tomorrow, is negative.

A simple majority in favour of charging may not be sufficient because the ten local authorities in Greater Manchester have agreed that the scheme will go ahead only if it is supported by a majority of voters in at least seven council areas.

Manchester would be the first to adopt the Government’s favoured approach of using technology to charge the drivers who contribute the most to congestion. More than 750,000 motorists would be issued with tags that would be read by roadside beacons positioned in two rings around the city.

Payments would be deducted automatically from prepaid accounts, with charges applying only at peak times, determined partly by the distance driven. The application of the Central London congestion charge is crude by comparison, with a flat rate for all vehicles that travel any distance within the zone during an 11-hour period.

The Manchester charges would be introduced in 2013, after 80 per cent of the public transport improvements had been completed, with discounts for the low-paid and exemptions in areas of the city that would have to wait longer for improvements to public transport.

Geoff Hoon, the Transport Secretary, was accused of trying to bully Manchester into accepting congestion charging by stating that it would not get a penny of the £1.5 billion if it voted no. “There is no Plan B. I would not want people to be under any illusion about that,” he said.

The Yes campaign argues that only one person in ten would pay the charge. However, at least one driver would pay in a third of households.

Sir Alex Ferguson, the Manchester United manager, urged people to vote yes, saying they had a “once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to put Greater Manchester in the premier league for public transport”. Opponents of the scheme pointed out that Sir Alex lived in Cheshire and would not be voting.

Graham Stringer, Labour MP for Manchester Blackley, who is against the scheme, said: “If the vote is ‘no’ then road pricing is definitely off the agenda until the other side of the next election and probably for another two or three elections after that.”

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