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It is an old trick, "kitchen sinking". You know. When fresh executives take charge and, oh my, unearth bucketfuls of horrors to dump on to their predecessors’ records. So investors’ expectations are lowered and even the slightest operational improvement is viewed as proof of the new management’s brilliance.
Well, there must be an opposite. Back end loading, perhaps. Or final flourishing. The kind of thing you might think was happening at British Airways, where Rod Eddington is to leave in September after, in his last full year, guiding the airline to its best performance since 1997.
The company’s £415 million in pre-tax profits compare with £5 million in the year before he took over in May 2000. Debts fell to their lowest since 1993. Yet revenues were, at £7.81 billion, 12 per cent lower and bills swollen by the rise of oil prices to record highs.
BA has even left £45 million in the pot for a handout to staff. Junior staff, even.
As befits an airline boss, Mr Eddington is leaving on a high. One suspects that even if Willie Walsh (above), the next BA chief executive, could uncover the odd buried nasty, he would find that Mr Eddington had removed any kitchen sinks in which they might be displayed.
Chance has played a part in Mr Eddington’s success. The industry slump which followed the September 11 attacks sobered up union heads to the importance of cost cuts. More than £1 billion has been cut from BA’s cost base. Add them back and BA would be left a low-flying basket case, as are many of its rivals. United Airlines, for instance, has been in Chapter 11 bankruptcy since 2002.
So is the only way down for Mr Walsh? It will prove difficult to improve profits much in the current year. The 5 per cent revenue rise flowing from "fuel surcharges" – fare rises in common parlance – will be more than matched by increased fuel costs. And the dip in BA’s performance in the January-to-March period signals the growing difficulty of battling competitors in Europe, such as Ryanair, and in the US, such as, ironically, United Airlines, which in Chapter 11 has protection from creditors and also boasts significant federal support.
Furthermore, Mr Walsh will encounter less compliant staff.
It typically signals trouble when a company results announcement is swiftly followed by a union statement. "On the basis of these figures we’ll be looking to meet with the new chief executive and placing job security high on the agenda," the Transport & General Workers Union had proclaimed by 9am.
Yet Mr Walsh will be principally judged by cost improvements reaped by the centralisation of BA’s Heathrow operations at Terminal 5. More than a means of pleasing passengers, this shift is foreseen as a catalyst to the reform of working practices at BA’s most important airport, and thence throughout the group.
Happily, for investors at least, Mr Walsh comes with a hard-as-knuckles reputation. At his previous employer, Aer Lingus, he cut 2,000 jobs to save the airline from the breakers’ yard. And this at a state-owned airline.
Indeed, if there is one thing lacking from his CV, it is private sector experience.
It is analysts' briefings and fund manager lunches he may struggle to deal with, and other plc customs.
Including, eventually, the temptation for his successor to arrive with a critical eye and a basin the size of a bathtub waiting to be filled.
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