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The commission was particularly scathing of BAA’s record

on developing new capacity. “One of the main purposes for privatising BAA as a single entity was for investment in new capacity. But in terms of runway capacity, this has not happened . . . much of what it does seems to

be short term and reacting to events,” it said.

As an example, the inquiry examines the long gestation of terminal 5 at Heathrow. While noting the difficulties posed by the planning process, it points out that BAA took eight years to prepare a planning application, and even then another round of applications had to be submitted after the public inquiry had begun.

A scheme to redevelop the remaining Heathrow terminals, first flagged up in the 1980s, “was only identified in 2006, five years after the building of terminal 5 had started”.

On the plans for a new runway at Stansted, BAA had made “little effort” to produce a scheme that low-cost airlines like Ryanair and Easyjet, Stansted’s main users, would find acceptable. The commission said BAA had already spent £124m on preparatory work that might be paid for “by airlines that do not support the development plan”.

While most have interpreted the report as heralding the sale of Gatwick, some think Stansted could also have to go. Brian Ross of the Stop Stansted Expansion Campaign said the commission’s highlighting of BAA’s inability to develop more than one large project at a time was significant.

“If BAA holds on to Heathrow and Stansted, their history suggests they will be done one after the other, rather than at the same time,” he said.

Ian Gilesa, a competition lawyer at the City law firm Norton Rose, said: “If the commission does force BAA to make disposals, it would be ground-breaking, the first time it has imposed structural remedies in this type of investigation.”

Most of the problems identified in the report predate Ferrovial’s involvement, but it — and its co-investors, the Singaporean fund GIC and Canadian group Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec — will have to deal with the commission’s findings.

There could be a silver lining in any sell-off. On the day the report was published, the government announced a review of airport regulation, holding out the prospect that the BAA break-up could be accompanied by an end to the 20-year-old system of setting price caps on big airports. An end to price regulation would greatly increase the price that BAA could get for its airports.

“Under the current regime, Gatwick is probably worth about £2 billion,” said one transport banker. “If you scrap the price caps, and let the new owner charge what it wants, that might go up to £3 billion or £4 billion.”

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