Demand for rail travel is rising much faster than government predictions, and the network risks being overwhelmed by extra passengers, according to Network Rail.

The modest increases in capacity announced by ministers in July fall far short of what will be needed if passenger numbers keep growing at the present rate.

Network Rail’s strategic business plan, published yesterday, says that overcrowding has spread across Britain’s railways and is a serious problem even on off-peak trains. More than 100,000 people have to stand, many for 45 minutes or more, on London-bound trains each morning.

Passenger numbers on commuter services into Birmingham, Bristol, Leeds, Manchester and Glasgow also far exceed the trains’ capacity.

The plan suggests that the Department for Transport is ignoring record growth and clinging to outdated forecasts to avoid committing itself to a significant expansion programme. It says that the DfT’s estimate that passenger numbers will grow by only 3 per cent a year until 2014 is becoming increasingly less plausible.

It adds: “Demand for rail services has increased by nearly 45 per cent between 1996-97 and 2006-07. Last year alone total passenger demand increased by more than 8 per cent. The rapid growth appears to be continuing into 2007-08.”

The plan says that train companies believe that growth will be “6 to 7 per cent per year for some time”. They are predicting 40 per cent growth in passengers by 2014 while the Government is planning to add capacity for only 22 per cent.

In an interview with The Times, Iain Coucher, the chief executive of Network Rail, said that the DfT was underestimating the scale of likely demand. “We can’t imagine growth is going to be as low as the DfT's forecast. There’s prodigious growth all over the country.

“When I began commuting from Banbury \ eight years ago, there were a dozen people on the platform. These days it’s 200.”

Mr Coucher said that key factors driving the growth were congestion on the roads, awareness of the environmental benefits of rail and an increasing willingness to commute long distances to avoid moving home.

Network Rail says that the network will require at least 200 more new carriages than the 1,300 the DfT is planning for England and Wales by 2014. It says that the DfT’s plan to expand commuter trains from eight to ten carriages may need to be changed to twelve, with platforms lengthened accordingly. But it adds: “In the past, it has often been possible to accommodate growth by running more trains, but the extent to which this is possible without enhancements to the network is becoming more limited.”

The plan even contains a brief reference to the possibility of reopening disused lines on crowded intercity routes. The Government has promised to upgrade the Thameslink route and expand Birmingham New Street and Reading stations. But other projects, such as lengthening West Coast Main Line trains, remain unfunded.

The plan says that the DfT’s goal of 92.6 per cent of trains arriving on time by 2014, up from the present 88.7 per cent, may be unrealistic because more passengers will mean trains spending extra seconds at each station. Network Rail has proposed a lower target of 91.6 per cent, saying that it would cost £400 million to achieve the extra percentage point.

Gerry Doherty, general secretary of the TSSA rail union, said: “Network Rail are running hard just to stand still. We need a new North-South rail line which will give the network the capacity it needs to allow passengers to travel in the comfort they deserve.

“Ministers should commit to it as soon as possible if we are serious about tackling climate change and providing a first-class network which can compete with air and road travel.”

A DfT spokesman said: “We have no plans to revise our forecasts.”

Room for improvement

Standing passengers
Peak weekly trains that terminate at London stations between 7am and 9.59am, autumn of 2006

Southeastern 27,300

Southern 21,500

South West Trains 21,500

One 13,000

First Capital Connect 9,700

c2c 3,400

First Great Western 3,000

Silverlink 1,000

Chiltern 500

Total (excl. long distance) 100,800

Source: Network Rail

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