Nintendo is set to miss out on an estimated $1.3 billion (£650 million) in sales this Christmas by failing to meet soaring global demand for its Wii video games console.

James Lin, a senior analyst at MDB Capital Group, which monitors retail activity, said Nintendo could sell twice the 1.8 million Wii consoles it is manufacturing each month. “There are as many people who want a Wii but end up walking away empty handed as there are get one,” he said.

Production has been constrained by shortages of components from suppliers and Nintendo insists it is doing all it can to meet demand. But analysts believe the company privately welcomes tight Wii supplies as it wants to delay the moment of market saturation to prolong interest in the console.

Consumers also have their suspicions. A proliferation of online conspiracy theories recently forced Reggie Fils-Aime, the president of Nintendo’s US operation, to deny suggestions that there was a “secret plan to store Wiis in a warehouse to spur demand”.

Mr Lin said: “It's a difficult balance, but at this stage, shortages are not the worse thing”. The Wii is one year into a lifespan expected to last between four and six years.

Nintendo has raised production targets several times in recent months and now plans to ship 17.5 million units globally this year, up from 14 million. It says that demand for the Wii "has been higher than we could ever have anticipated".

Piers Harding-Rolls, an analyst for the market researcher Screen Digest, said: “There has probably been a certain amount of supply-chain mismanagement. But Nintendo could not have predicted the level of demand.

He added that the shortages are also “a function of Nintendo’s 'just-in-time' supply chain,” which keeps inventories down to a minimum and is proving hugely profitable.”

Built to appeal to "non-core gamers" -- women and older people hitherto ignored by the games industry -- the Wii has outsold Sony's PlayStation 3 and Microsoft's Xbox 360 each by more than 2-1 this year.

Stock market investors appear to believe that Nintendo can maintain its success. Over the last two years the group’s shares have risen five-fold, to make the company Japan’s third most valuable quoted business.

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