It says something about the extent of the downturn in recruitment that Michael Page International booked more from a VAT refund - some £36 million - than it did from second-quarter trading in the UK.

Its figures were uniformly grim, which ever way you cut them. Gross profits in the three months to June 30 from permanent recruitment - which accounts for more than two-thirds of its business - were down 52 per cent. Geographically, the picture was no better: the Americas down 45 per cent, continental Europe down 46 per cent and Asia Pacific off 50 per cent.

Some context is required. The second quarter of last year marked Page’s peak in profitability, meaning year-on-year comparisons were always going to be tough. Further, Page remains profitable - something that cannot be said of all of its peers - while second quarter trading is broadly similar to the first, indicating a degree of stabilisation. The difficulty is that the third quarter of the year contains the summer lull, which raises the chance of a fall into quarterly loss.

Steve Ingham, Page’s chief executive, concedes that he can see no more than a few weeks ahead.

But Page is nothing if not a survivor, and will see profits surge at the first sign of upturn. It has plenty of cash (some £95 million), a secure dividend and scope to benefit from the withdrawal of weaker rivals.

Last October’s 165p is likely to have been the low. But at 234p, or a 50 times Investec Securities’s forecast of next year’s profits, neither is there a compelling short-term reason to buy.

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