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In truth, the GUS name, or Great Universal Stores as it was orginally called, has been irrelevant for some years. It belonged to the Wolfson era and in its heyday it was a monumental force. GUS’s last remaining links with the past were severed three years ago when Blank and Peace sold the group’s home-shopping arm.
In the 1950s and 1960s, when credit was not easily available, a huge swathe of working-class Britain bought goods via catalogues. It had been the mainstay of its operations but, with the ensuing boom in cheap credit, its best times had long gone.
When Blank succeeded David Wolfson as chairman and Peace took the hot seat six years ago, they both set about dismantling the sprawling empire. They brought in overdue focus and invested for the long term.
Burberry was demerged at four times the price investors originally wanted it sold at; its South Africa-based Lewis Stores business was spun off and its Dutch catalogue business was also sold.
It was rebuilt around Argos (which later included Homebase, the DIY chain) and Experian. Before joining the board Peace had been responsible for building up the credit-checking business. He had orginally created a UK company called CCN, which he sold to GUS. In the late 1990s CCN bought a US company called Experian and the name was changed.
Together Argos and Experian became the growth engines, but there was little synergy in keeping them together. In recent months barely a week has gone by without an approach to buy one of the businesses, but the hottest ticket has always been Experian.
Just a few years ago analysts were valuing it at £3 billion to £4 billion. When it is demerged, the likely figure will be between £7 billion and £8 billion, putting its shares on a multiple of more than 20.
Experian is a global company. It is big in America, is just starting up in Russia and has a booming consultancy business in China, Korea and other parts of Asia.
The GUS board has rightly opted to let the market decide Experian’s value rather than sell to a private-equity group. This investor appetite will be tested soon with plans to raise £1 billion to fuel Experian’s growth. As well as approaching existing shareholders, new ones — particularly those in America — will be approached. If the response is strong, the shares will be issued at par, reducing the effect of a discounted rights issue.
The proceeds will help GUS juggle how to allocate its £2.7 billion of debts prior to the demerger, as well as a £2 billion off-balance-sheet lease liability against its Homebase stores. However, to ensure adequate credit ratings for both companies, most of the debt will be in Experian.
In the coming weeks there will also be interest in the pay packets offered to Experian’s team and to the ARG team. It will have to reflect the fact that directors from both companies have turned down eye-popping packages in private equity, and GUS is not alone in having to tackle that issue.
Dyke dished
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