Next yesterday hailed the anniversary of the collapse of Lehman Brothers and a pick-up in autumn trade.

The company said that an improved womenswear range had boosted sales in October — figures that also benefited by comparison with the same period last year, when the failure of the American bank ushered in the global financial crisis. Next raised its profit guidance for the full year by £30 million to about £472 million, which would represent a 10 per cent improvement on last year.

The company also said that it was now faster on its feet. Simon Wolfson, chief executive, said: “We are making decisions later and changing fashion trends — whether they be narrow lapels or padded shoulders — more quickly. It is also key that this is not just in young fashion but right across the ranges.”

He said that cost pressures would ease in the second half because of the stabilisation of the pound. The effect of sterling’s depreciation was better than feared because Next was able to negotiate reductions in dollar and euro-denominated costs.

While consumers were more confident, Mr Wolfson said, there was still potential for a recovery to be disrupted. “No one quite knows what the effect of increased taxation is going to be next year. I think that is a huge macroeconomic spectre.

“As long as there is a prospect of reduced [public] spending and, therefore, reduced public sector employment and increased taxation remains on the cards, I don’t think anyone should get too carried away with spring/summer 2010. Consumers are going to be relatively fragile for the foreseeable future. I think that any extreme picture is wrong. It’s wrong to say that the consumer is in a freefall and there’s a catastrophe ahead of us. It’s equally wrong that there will be a return to strong growth. The reality will be ... subdued growth.” Sales in the quarter to October 31 increased by 3.1 per cent, for a like-for-like decline of 1.3 per cent. If online sales are included — as they are in Marks & Spencer’s like-for-like figures — the figures would have risen by 0.9 per cent, outperforming M&S and Debenhams.

John Lewis, the department store chain, has also seen a dramatic improvement in fashion sales this autumn, driven by online trade and womenswear. Total fashion sales at its department stores and website are up 7.1 per cent in the first 12 weeks of the year, with double-digit growth being reported in the past three weeks. The company has launched a campaign fronted by Jacquetta Wheeler, the supermodel.

Next issued cautious guidance for the second half of the year. The company said that it expected like-for-like sales to decline by between 3.5 and 6.5 per cent, with Christmas sales down by as much as 3 per cent.

Directory sales are anticipated to rise by up to 2 per cent, and up to 6 per cent at Christmas.

Nick Coulter, retail analyst at Numis, the broker, said that the Next Directory, its home shopping channel, had surpassed expectations as the company pointed to improved stock availability.

He added: “We think Next is an ideal stock heading into an uncertain consumer environment.”

Next said that fewer Directory customers were falling into arrears. The company said: “We believe this is a reflection of a general improvement in consumer finances.”

Home shopping groups have suffered a rise in bad loans during the recession, despite being more cautious with credit.

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