The contrast could barely be more stark. On the one hand is Richmond, the kind of West London suburb where life seems easy, where the cares of the world are someone else’s problem; on the other is Hanley, Stoke-on-Trent, an industrial throwback where such problems are all too real, all to vivid. It is a contrast thrown into even sharper relief by the predations of global recession.

Richmond is doing very nicely, thank you. Indeed, according to CACI, the marketing and location specialist, it is the most recession-resilient retail centre in Britain, relatively serene amid the high street carnage elsewhere, sitting back and savouring the coffee on the banks of the Thames and over the road from Old Deer Park and Kew Gardens.

Hanley, however, is struggling. One of six towns that became Stoke-on-Trent almost 100 years ago, it is home to the Potteries centre and countless wistful memories of an industrial past now lost or in decline, of coal, steel and, of course, ceramics. It has parks, too, but whereas Old Deer Park is a relic of Queen Elizabeth I and Richmond Park was a favourite of Henry VIII, Hanley Forest Park is landscaped, formerly derelict industrial land. Elsewhere, empty Victorian factories await their fate, to be reclaimed or replaced.

“Even before the recession struck, the Potteries was trying to adjust after the decline of the ceramics industry,” Mark Brammar, the membership manager of North Staffordshire Chamber of Commerce, said. “We’re used to coming top of these lists. It’s a reflection of it being an area of low income. We’re suffering as other areas are, but it’s a continuation of the decline in manufacturing and the loss of traditional jobs in the area.”

CACI’s calculations suggest that spending in the London Borough of Richmond upon Thames is likely to drop by 9.3 per cent, if disposable income falls by 4 per cent as a consequence of rising unemployment. The study takes into account the affluence of the catchment area and the type of shops in the retail centre. And where Richmond leads, other parts of West London, home to some of Britain’s wealthiest individuals, follow. Kensington, Kingston and Knightsbridge all feature at the top of the list.

The bottom of the list, those least likely to weather the recession, is also dominated by a regional trend. Those worst hit are far from London, where unemployment is higher and earnings lower. The majority of the top ten worst-affected locations are in the North of England, the likes of Scarborough, Hull, Bradford, Rotherham and Barnsley.

Nielsen Harrap, principal consultant of location planning for CACI, said: “Centres in traditionally affluent areas are those better placed to survive the recession. People here will have less disposable income than before, but will still have money to spend.

“In harder-pressed areas, people are more likely to have very little or no disposable income in the current environment — here spending will not switch from one type of purchase to another, but slow down or stop.

“The recession is clearly affecting us all, but our study shows where it will have greatest and least impact, allowing retailers to make informed decisions on planning for their future operations.”

This is not to say that West London is immune from the global economic pandemic. The Times recently found that about 10 per cent of units are vacant at Westfield, the upmarket £1.6 billion shopping centre opened in Shepherds Bush last November, while even Kings Road in Chelsea and Kensington High Street has seen a sharp increase in empty shops.

However, Richmond, basking in yesterday’s balmy spring sunshine, seems in rude health. Eva Edwards, who co-owns The House of Chocolate in Richmond, a specialist confectioner, said that although many shops had closed since Christmas, the local character of the area would help to support it through the recession.

She said: “There are lots of independent shops — it’s very old school. It’s a very nice area to shop in.

“On a summery day there are beautiful views. I know the shops on the riverbank do well. [Last weekend] there were thousands and thousands of people here. Hopefully if the weather is very inviting, we will do well.”

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