Retail sales unexpectedly rise 1.5%

Once again, retailers will be rubbing their eyes in disbelief at the sales figures published by the Office for National Statistics.

The November figures are completely at odds with what the CBI and the British Retail Consortium say happened last month. Surveys published by both of those organisations point to a decline in sales in November.

The CBI’s survey for November, for example, showed that the balance of retailers reporting a rise in year-on-year sales during November was -46 per cent.

The BRC’s figures, meanwhile, pointed to November’s retail sale volumes being down 2.6 per cent on the same month last year.

Yet the ONS is claiming that retail sale volumes in November were up 0.3 per cent on October and up a quite staggering 1.5 per cent on November last year.

The ONS also suggests the total value of retail sales in November was up 2.9 per cent on November last year — while the BRC’s figures for the same period showed a 0.4 per cent fall.

However, even anecdotally, the ONS data does not appear to bear any relationship with what is thought to have been happening on the ground in November. It is barely credible that, in an environment in which unemployment is rising rapidly, house prices are plunging and utility bills have yet to reflect recent falls in crude oil prices, retail sales could actually have risen in November.

In recent years, the ONS data on retail sales has been volatile, to say the least. The figures for May in particular showed a sharp upward blip which was strongly criticised by the BRC and others.

At the time, the ONS argued its surveys were the more accurate, as it questions some 5,000 businesses of all sizes each month — claiming the BRC speaks to far fewer retailers.

It also argues that, while the BRC concentrates on established high street retailers, it speaks to a wider cross-section of retailers — including small and medium businesses, internet-only retailers and major discount food stores.

If the ONS is right, things last month were better than previously assumed. But 30,000 Woolworths employees will tell you they were not.

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