Dominic Walsh
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Inchcape this morning sent a fresh shiver through the embattled car industry as the international dealership scrapped its final dividend and warned investors that next year's results would fall well short of expectations.
The fresh proft warning came as Lord Mandelson, the Business Secretary, was expected to unveil a limited aid package for beleaguered British carmakers as fears grow over tens of thousands of job losses in the industry.
Shares of Inchcape fell by 21.75p to 49p — a fall of more than 30 per cent — in early trading as it admitted that the decline in new car sales had accelerated in November in most parts of the world.
The group, which had previously announced plans to cut 1,600 jobs, said it now expected the figure to be 1,900 — or more than 10 per cent of its global workforce of 17,000 — amid further restructuring of its European businesses, principally in the UK.
In a bleak assessment, it said: "The rapid and unprecedented decline in so many of the group's markets makes it difficult to forecast our results with a great degree of certainty."
It added: "In most of our markets we now expect more substantial sales declines than previously estimated due to the global recession and significant reduction in credit availability."
In its UK business, new car sales fell by 37 per cent in November, while in continental Europe sales fell by about 26 per cent and sales in Australia fell 22 per cent.
It said that it expected the Russian market to decline next year because of the increase in import duty on cars and the likelihood that many manufacturers would switch to pricing vehicles in US dollars.
In Australia, meanwhile, it had been hit by the decision by GMAC, the credit finance provider, to stop writing new business in that market early next year.
The group said that it also expected its tax rate to rise next year as it would be unable to obtain relief on losses in some of the countries in which it operates.
As a result of this cocktail of woes, it said it expected its underlying results for 2009 to be "significantly below our previous expectations".
The group said that it would be scrapping the final dividend and, although it was not in breach of banking covenants, it was in talks with its banks to ensure its covenants were "appropriate for a downturn in trading in 2009".
Inchcape, which has net debt of £540 million and committed facilities of £1.35 billion, said any changes to the terms could increase its interest charge.
The profit warning came as the company reported a 4.9 per cent fall in like-for-like sales in the first 11 months of the year at constant currency rates. It said underlying results for 2008 woulld be in line with previous expectations.
Lord Mandelson is this week expected to make loan guarantees available to the finance arms of car companies in an attempt to kick-start sales. Another option is for low-cost loans to be made from the £400 billion set aside to support the banking industry.
Industry leaders have been asking for a move to stimulate demand for several weeks, but say that Lord Mandelson's initiatives may no longer be enough to keep their manufacturing plants in operation.
Senior car iindustry executives said they feared the worst if more substantial aid was not forthcoming before Christmas.
However, Andrė Lacroix, Inchcape's chief executive, said: "Markets will recover in due course and we believe that Inchcape is best positioned to benefit from its strong market positions."
It said that it further restructured its European businesses, lifting the expected annualised savings from £50 million to £55 million. The cost of the restructuring rises from £75 million to £85 million.
Dresdner Kleinwort cut its 2009 pre-tax profit forecast from £157 million to zero for 2009. It expects the group to make £30 million the following year, down from its previous estimate of £178 million.
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