The countdown to Christmas begins in earnest today as the last fireworks fizzle out. With Bonfire Night out of the way attention focuses on what could prove to be one of most difficult festive periods on the high street for years.

There are 49 shopping days until December 25 and executives in the retail sector will be anxious at the start of each and every one of them. Some businesses may not even make it through the next seven weeks.

Simon Wolfson, the Next chief executive, is right to call for some perspective when it comes to judging the state of the sector. Experts believe that Christmas spending could slip this year but even then it is a question of less than 1per cent. Some believe it will be flat.

Given everything that has happened this year - the disappearance of investment banks such as Lehman Brothers, and the nationalisation of some of the biggest names in Britain's financial sector - it is almost a surprise that spending has held up as well as it has.

A healthy interest rate cut from the Bank of England today, and the start of the “homely” Christmas adverts promised by

the likes of Marks & Spencer, could be just what is needed to encourage shoppers to loosen the purse strings.

There will be winners and losers on the high street and the split between the two camps is only likely to grow. Recent sales figures in America suggest that niche operators and value chains are faring best. The same divergence is already happening in Britain and will continue.

Yet the growing concern for the retail sector centres on what will happen when the Christmas decorations come down.

There will be official confirmation shortly into the New Year that Britain is in a recession and a significant jump in unemployment is on the cards as companies face tougher economic conditions.

Customers are likely to be more cautious than ever and the fallout in the retail sector could be severe. There is already far too much capacity in the market after the recent surge in new stores and shopping centres such as Westfield, and restructuring experts believe that the number of administrations next year could hit record levels.

Then there is the looming threat posed by the US dollar. The pound languishing at near six-year lows against the greenback may be good news for London's tourist industry but it could be the straw that breaks retailers' backs.

Clothing stores such as Primark and Next buy a large amount of their stock from the Far East in US dollars. They already face higher costs from wage inflation in China and it will be close to impossible to weather a near 30per cent rise in currency costs.

This festive season could turn out to be tough - but it might not be anywhere near as hard as the run-up to Christmas 2009.

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