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Tesco is the British company best placed to weather a recession and emerge stronger, according to a “survivability” index, compiled by BDO Stoy Hayward, the accountant and business adviser, and Verdict, the retail analyst.
The supermarket group heads the list that also includes some retail minnows. Three small clothes companies are among the most recession-proof retailers in Britain, according to the research.
Boden, the catalogue business that counts David Cameron as its best- known customer, is number two in the list. Fat Face, the private equity-owned casual chain, sneaks in at number ten, while Howies, an eco-clothing company that trades online, is at six, sandwiched between Waitrose and John Lewis.
The authors of the report say the predicted resilience of the clothing minnows emphasises the importance of strong branding and a welldeveloped, community-minded internet presence. Howies has attempted to build a brand that sells an idea as much as it does clothes, Rupert Eastell, head of retail at BDO Stoy Hayward, said.
“Howies, in particular, is creating something the customer comes back to time and time again. It is creating a community and is much cleverer about the bits around the edges than competitors.” he said.
Fat Face, which is owned by Bridgepoint, the private equity company, won plaudits for the continued strength of its brands against competitors. Blacks Leisure, the outdoor specialist, is considering selling its surfwear division - which includes O'Neill, Mambo and Animal - amid flagging sales. Neil Gillis, chief executive of Blacks, has blamed the downturn for the slump in sales. For Fat Face, Mr Eastell said: “It comes down to the fundamentals of the brand. Fat Face has a better understanding of its customers than its competitors. It knows how to keep things fresh and really work its customer.”
Boden, meanwhile, has so far proved resistant to the slowdown. Last month it revealed pre-tax profits of £27.4 million for the year, up from £4.6million last year. It registered a turnover of £153.6 million, 20 per cent up on the previous year.
Retailers who adapt, taking into account local demand in store layouts and segmentation, will fare better in the long run, as will those that avoid blindly cutting costs, the authors said. The diverse ranges of supermarkets - many supply clothes, electronics, homeware and food - is a factor in their favour in tough economic times. In assessing “survivability”, the report's authors considered branding, cost management, internet potential, product segmentation, customer targeting, defense of market share and the diversity of product ranges.
Retailers need to think much more proactively about what customers want, the report found. Mr Eastell added: “We were struck by just how many retailers were not particularly adept at proactively selling in a slowdown, where successfully targeting a wants-driven customer base requires a very different model. Today's consumers certainly do not need to buy much more so the task for retailers is to inspire people to want things.”
Retailers will have to work doubly hard to thrive in the difficult months ahead, said Neil Saunders, consulting director at Verdict. “We are now entering the most challenging period many retailers will have ever faced. The UK retail market is both mature and intensively competitive and that, combined with a slowdown in growth, means everyone will need to work much harder just to stand still.
“Those that emerge from the present difficulties in the strongest position will be the players that have superior focus and exceptional execution. Being good will no longer be good enough to generate growth; retailers that want to increase their sales will have to excel in every way.”
Mr Saunders added that the recession may force a change of mindset for the retail industry. “Many organisations are focused around the buying office. That is not really good enough any more. There is an attitude: 'We think this will look good, so it will sell'.”
For some retailers, a slowdown represents an opportunity. The last time economic output contracted in Britain, the biggest supermarkets used the downturn as a springboard to roll out huge store expansions.
Tesco, Sainsbury's and Argyll, which then owned Safeway, comprised the “big three”. They raised £1.4billion in a wave of rights issues that financed a new generation of stores, sustained by sale-and-leasebacks. A look at the retail map of Britain will tell you which eventually did best out of that recession: Tesco boasts the leading market share in 88 of Britain's 121 postcode zones.
Survival of the fittest
1 Tesco, Britain's largest supermarket
2 Boden, the catalogue shop for the post-Sloane generation of middle-class families
3 Selfridges, the department store chain
4 Apple Store, home of the iPod and the iPhone
5 John Lewis, the employee-owned department store and bellwether of Middle England
6 Howies, an internet-based fashion retailer that started life clothing mountain bikers
7 Waitrose, the upmarket supermarket chain that is part of the John Lewis Partnership
8 J Sainsbury, Britain's third-largest supermarket
9 TM Lewin, tailor with 57 stores
10 Fat Face, casual clothes retailer that began as a venture selling sweatshirts from rucksacks in the Alps
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