An historic lack of inward investment, combined with out-of-town development, has diminished the appeal of a number of towns and cities in Britain over the past 20 years, for shoppers and retailers alike. The trend towards town and city centre retail development is addressing this and reversing the fortunes of several locations. These developments are the catalyst for job creation and contribute to their regional economies. Recent beneficiaries include Belfast, Bristol, Leicester and Liverpool, all of which have witnessed the beginning of retail-led regeneration. As Birmingham, Reading and Southampton have demonstrated, retail-led regeneration helps to put places back on the map.

Reading was ranked No 30 in the UK retail hierarchy before The Oracle shopping centre was built. Today it ranks No14, according to the Javelin Group's Venuescore retail centre survey for 2007. Southampton witnessed a similar rise after the WestQuay shopping centre was built - it rose from No 25 to No 11.

When the 2008 Venuescore is released, Cabot Circus will catapult Bristol up the retail hierarchy from its 2007 placing of No 27. Prior to this new development, Bristol had failed to attract a large number of new retailers.

Increased consumer demand for accessibility and for “one-stop shop” destinations for retail, catering and leisure is fuelling polarisation, with fewer retail locations serving consumers' needs and wants. This polarisation is also being fuelled by global retailer requirements for larger, more efficient store space. The move towards bigger stores to serve larger catchment areas has been a trend, too. This has resulted in the new developments being located in the best-quality retail catchments.

To appeal to this changing dynamic, Britain's towns and cities need to reinvent themselves to compete. This does not mean that there is no future for second-tier locations; on the contrary, it emphasises their need to reinvigorate what they have to offer.

In terms of the impact of the present economic climate on planned retail development, most of the schemes that were due to open after 2009 will need to be reworked to ensure financial viability.

It takes a number of years to deliver a large new development, usually between eight and ten years, so there is a lag time between the return of favourable market conditions (that is, high retailer demand, consumer expenditure and property values) and delivery of large-scale shopping centre developments. This can mean that an economic slowdown results in deferred development, which in turn results in an undersupply of new developments when the market recovers.

As a result, I believe that it is likely we will see the number of new shopping centres opening during 2011 and 2012 fall below the long-term average of 3.7 million sq ft. A similar pattern emerged in the mid-1990s after the economic downturn of the late 1980s and early 1990s. If the present downturn is brief and no worse than present conditions, then developers will continue to commit to their projects. Either way, retail developments will continue to play a key role in the fortunes of the cities where they are located and future development in the UK will continue to be some of the most exciting in Europe.

Martyn Chase is head of retail for EMEA (Europe, Middle East and Africa) at DTZ and president of the British Council of Shopping Centres.

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