Scrooges everywhere have been saying it for years, but this year Christmas really is arriving earlier than ever.

Faced with what is predicted to be their grimmest festive period in 30 years, anxious retailers are bringing the season forward.

According to analysts, Christmas stock and promotions are being introduced earlier, in part to help consumers to spread Christmas spending over a longer period, in part to encourage them to part with their pennies.

The result is a stand-off between shoppers, who have been leaving Christmas later and later each year, and retailers desperate to stave off a dire performance for the vital last quarter of the year.

Richard Dodd, a spokesman for the British Retail Consortium (BRC), said: “There's evidence that retailers are putting out Christmas promotions early this year because they're mindful of the fact customers may be keener to spread the cost of Christmas. But there's no question it's going to be a very tough Christmas for retailers.”

Christmas sales last year grew 0.3per cent on a like-for-like basis - a contraction in real terms. This year is expected to be worse. The BRC is expecting massive discounting and promotions as retailers grapple with the loss of consumer confidence in the wake of the problems in the financial sector. One survey yesterday suggested that Britons would spend £1billion less on Christmas presents this year.

Nick Bubb, a retail analyst for Pali International, is anticipating retailers' worst Christmas since the days of inflation at nearly 25 per cent and mass unemployment in the mid-1970s. “The cut in interest rates has brought some people's mortgage rates down,” he said, “but in the scheme of things, with rising unemployment, the housing market and everything else, it's simply not going to be enough.

“Last year was saved by a last- minute rush. This year the danger is that Christmas will be cancelled.”

Next, following the lead of other retailers, has already unveiled its Christmas store windows. Argos released its Christmas catalogue yesterday. Analysts are expecting widespread panic discounts in November.

Customers have been leaving their shopping increasingly late each year.This year December 20 and 21 - the last weekend before the 25th - will be the busiest shopping days for non-food. Shopping for Christmas dinner supplies are expected to peak on December 23 and 24.

Yet some areas are appearing relatively recession-proof. Online shopping is expected to post another year of stellar growth, if not quite up with last year's 60 per cent year-on-year increase for the festive period.

Mike Petevinos, the head of consulting for Cap Gemini, the IT consultancy, said that thrifty shoppers were likely to be driven to their computers: “There's a dynamic happening, as the credit crisis affects consumer confidence, where shoppers are looking to do more research and taking more care over purchasing decisions. Online is the perfect vehicle. It's becoming the only place for growth within retail.”

Toy retailers are also confident that they are not facing an abyss and predict a flat year-on-year Christmas performance. Gary Grant, chairman of the Toy Retailers' Association (TRA), which yesterday announced its predictions for Christmas bestsellers, said: “Parents would rather go without something themselves - a bottle of champagne or whatever - than let the children go without.”

He added that there may be a squeeze on volumes, as parents opt for two presents where they once may have bought three. With the average value of the TRA's top Christmas must-haves having risen 20 per cent from £34 to £41, parents may not feel the difference in their wallets.

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