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For three years, Kingfisher’s Gerry Murphy has fought to maintain the company’s dividend after initially being forced to cut investor returns in his first year as chief executive back in 2003.
Now that Mr Murphy is leaving, it might be time to review that policy.
Patchy trading, especially at its UK B&Q stores, and the resulting fall in group profits over three years, has left dividend cover at an extremely tight 1.1 times. Based on today’s third-quarter figures and its outlook for next year, it does not show any plans of improving any time soon.
Kingfisher’s UK performance is continuing to pull down strong overseas trading particularly in its revitalised France business, where like-for-like sales rose 5.6 per cent and in Poland, where turnover jumped by 18.3 per cent.
In contrast, UK third-quarter like-for-like sales fell 0.5 per cent, and profits plunged 11.9 per cent. B&Q itself contributes 45.3 per cent to annual revenue.
Kingfisher is attempting to turn the UK around through an extensive “revamp” programme, but this is a long, expensive process, estimated to take another four years to complete, with each store costing £2.5 million to refurbish and £1 million in lost profits.
At the same time, the company is having to discount millions of pounds worth of old stock as it modernises the products it sells. However, it is less than halfway through that part of the revamp programme which is taking place against a backdrop of slowing consumer spending and a housing market on the cusp of grinding to a halt.
Since speculation is already rife that Kingfisher will cut its dividend, investors will be less likely to panic if it happens next year.
Analysts predict the dividend, held at 10.60p for three years, could be cut back to 7.9p which, based on future reduced earnings, would still give a fairly stringent 1.4 times cover against a more normal 2 times, but at least it would be a step in the right direction.
Whoever succeeds Mr Murphy has to speed up the B&Q facelift first of all and then readjust its dividend to reflect the company’s earnings. It may not be particularly comfortable, but at least it would be realistic
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