James Harding: Business Editor
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As demonstrated by such magisterial second acts as The Godfather: Part II and, for that matter, Toy Story 2, the great advantage of sequels is that everyone knows the main characters before the action even begins. And, certainly in Sainsbury II: the Battle Rejoined, the players are looking to learn the lessons from the original drama.
The Qataris, who are now exploring a £6-plus offer for the supermarket group, have identified the key figures in securing support for any deal: the family.
This was the lesson that the CVC-led consortium learnt to its cost earlier this year, when it offered 580p per share, only to have its bid scuppered by David Sainsbury – aka Lord Sainsbury of Turville. The former science minister signalled his hostility to private equity’s interest by saying that he saw no reason to open the business’s books if the bidders offered anything less than £6 a share. His family, which owns 18 per cent of Sainsbury’s, backed up by Robert Tchenguiz, who had 5 per cent, sunk the deal.
Delta Two, the Qatari state-owned investment fund, has taken note. It has offered £6-plus a share. It has signalled its seriousness by taking a 25 per cent stake in the business. Paul Taylor, the chief executive of Delta Two, is presumed to be aligned with Mr Tchenguiz. Delta Two is a state-backed entity, clearly able to reassure pension fund trustees that it will not disappear into the night. Most significantly, the Qataris have started by wooing Sainsbury’s: David and John Sainsbury were flown to Sardinia last week to meet Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim bin Jabr al-Thani, the Qatari Prime Minister and a powerful figure behind Delta Two.
All this should make it easier for the Qataris to make progress than it was for CVC. But that is not to say that it will be easy.
The Sainsbury family now signals that a bid at anything like £6 a share would be far too low. More to the point, they are dead set against any deal that would load excessive gearing on to a retail business.
The family will not be quite as powerful this time round, as Mr Tchenguiz may be less likely to vote with them, making it easier for a bidder to reach the 75 per cent threshold. But the Sainsbury family did not just block the vote last time, they soured sentiment. They can do the same again in Sainsbury’s II.
The unknown in all of this is the mysterious new character in the story, the Qatari investment fund. The CVC consortium was sunk, among other things, by suspicion of private equity. Mr Taylor and the Sheikh have, if anything, been more private. If they are to convince shareholders, employees and pensioners, as well as customers, of the merit of the deal, they will have to be more transparent.
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