Demographic change is one of the most volatile challenges facing councils today. It affects almost everything that local authorities do, from managing school rolls to supporting social cohesion and economic development. It also shapes what they are able to do because population figures are central to the way in which central government allocates resources.

Census figures, taken every ten years, can dramatically underestimate the true number of people in an area. Bev Smith, head of community development at Boston council, says that GPs’ records show her borough’s population to be at least 10 per cent higher than the official figure of 58,300.

“Service providers have a big challenge in making sure that they reflect the needs of the community, given that the make up of that community isn’t known,” she says.

Many of the new arrivals in her area are migrants from Eastern Europe who come to work in the region’s agricultural industry. The temporary nature of their jobs makes assessing their numbers and managing the situation even more difficult.

“Some people come and only want to stay a couple of months, earn as much as they can and then leave, while others want to come and settle down in Boston.

“Dealing with such rapid change, it’s about understanding needs and delivering the best you can.” In Boston’s case, this includes a wide range of support services and community cohesion events, including the “building bridges” project, which sees local families paired up with new arrivals for informal conversation lessons.

Rob Whiteman, the chief executive of Barking and Dagenham council in London, is also dealing with a rapidly-changing population in what was, until recently, a very settled area.

“Ten years ago the black and minority ethnic population of the borough was less than 10 per cent,” he says. “At the last census in 2001 it was 15 per cent. Today it’s probably more than 25 per cent.”

These changes create challenges for the council in welcoming new arrivals and in reassuring indigenous people who feel threatened by change.

Lincolnshire and London are just two examples of a larger population change taking place across the country. This is being driven by three things, says Tim Allen, the programme director for analysis and research at the Local Government Association: international migration into the UK; internal movement within the country; and recent signs that fertility rates are rising.

Until recently, we were living longer and having fewer babies, meaning that councils needed to provide more aged care and fewer schools. “But an increase in birthrate now means that we need to rethink schools while still dealing with an aging population,” he says.

Looking farther ahead, local government needs to think about climate change; if, say, Bangladesh becomes uninhabitable, how many newcomers can we help?

But these challenges facing councils are not simply the result of population changes, Whiteman says. “They are linked to issues such as social exclusion, for example a shortage of affordable housing, and income deprivation.”

Sukhvinder Stubbs, chief executive of the Barrow Cadbury Trust, which promotes social justice, is trying to work on these issues using class structure rather than race to promote habits of solidarity.

“Race can sometimes be more divisive than it needs to be. Very often the issues are about poverty, not culture.” she says. “We are trying to encourage different poor ethnic groups to think about what they have in common, rather than looking at competing with each other for resources.”

For example, the London Citizens’ London Living Wage Campaign brought together more than 80 different groups to improve wages and conditions for thousands of low-paid workers.

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