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It has followed in the steps of the Bank of England and gained independence from the Government. Although still a government department, since April the Office for National Statistics reports to the UK Statistics Authority, rather than to a minister.
“We still have to abide by all the Civil Service rules. I can't stand up and say exactly what I like because that's not part of the Civil Service code,” says Karen Dunnell, the National Statistician. “What we mean by independence is independent from the interference of ministers in the business and the publication of statistics.”
To counter that interference, all government statistics are now released on a single website - a “way that we can separate the publication of statistics from the departments', and thus the ministers', interpretation, spin, call it what you like, on it”. Dunnell also wants statisticians in government departments to present their own statistics in press conferences - currently only the ONS does this. And ministers leaking statistics, however inadvertent, “gets the whole business a very bad name”, but Dunnell believes that the pre- release period “makes everybody very vulnerable”, so the Government is consulting on a standard 24-hour pre-release period. These efforts should go some way towards building the public's trust in statistics.
Immigration statistics are in the top three priorities at the ONS. “We're under pressure from everybody because people don't feel that the methods we have for measuring inward and outward migration can cope with what everybody on the ground sees, which is a huge increase in the movement of people in and out of the country, and indeed within the country.”
The challenge is not only to count total numbers, but to apportion them to local authority areas. And they're also trying to do short-term migrant estimates after requests, mainly from local authorities. “Some local authorities have a major issue with this. Places like Westminster and Slough have been most vociferous about it,” Dunnell says. She feels that the ONS has a “very, very good idea about what local authorities want”, after consultation on the census and the Improving Migration and Population Statistics Project, but she adds: “Obviously when they get annoyed about something they don't wait for a consultation, they just ring up or write.”
The 2011 census is another top priority. A test has already been done successfully and a dress rehearsal in five areas is planned for autumn 2009. Dunnell says they are trying to keep the questions from the last census “because people are always interested in ‘how has my area changed' and the census is the only thing where we're able to produce small area statistics”. But there are demands for new questions, “particularly around the absolute priority which is to get the count right”.
So, for example, the census will ask about second homes, since increasingly people have an address that they work from in the week, and more and more children spend some time with two sets of parents. “All these reasons lead to having to be absolutely sure that either you're not double counting or missing any address.” The ONS is trying to improve its yearly population estimates between now and 2011 so it doesn't get a big shock from the census.
Does she feel that everybody wants something from her? “Yes,” she says, “but who wants to be in a situation where you're not wanted?
We're in a great situation, actually, because people want more of it and they want it to be done better. That's a very interesting and challenging situation to be in. It's not to be feared. I would be worried if people said ‘we don't want any of this any more'.”
Born: June 16, 1946, in Los Angeles.
Career: Began her career as a healthcare researcher and lecturer. Joined the Civil Service in 1974 to work on social surveys in the Office for Population Censuses and Surveys - one of the departments that later merged to form the Office for National Statistics in 1996. Held various positions in statistics, becoming the National Statistician in 2005.
What she says: “There is a general level of scepticism about answering questions from the Government ... but having data losses [by the Government] is just another nail in the coffin that we've had to contend with.”
Little-known fact: Her mother was a GI bride.
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