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Economics
Interest rates: The Bank of England is forecast to cut interest rates
by half a point to 4 per cent on Thursday, although some economists are
forecasting a full one-point reduction.
Manufacturing activity: The manufacturing purchasing mangers’ index,
due to be published today, is expected to have fallen to 40.1 in October,
from 41 in September. Any figure below 50 indicates contraction.
Services sector: Activity in the services sector is expected to have
declined again in October, with the purchasing managers’ index tipped to
have fallen to 44.7, from 46 in September.
Industrial production: Figures to be released on Wednesday are tipped
to show that industrial production fell by 0.3 per cent in September, after
a 0.6 per cent decline in August, while manufacturing is expected to have
fallen by 0.3 per cent, after a 0.4 per cent fall in August. The annual fall
in industrial production is expected to remain unchanged at 2.3 per cent,
while the decline in manufacturing is tipped to ease slightly to 1.6 per
cent from 1.9 per cent.
Eurozone interest rates: The European Central Bank is expected to cut
eurozone interest rates by half a point to 3.25 per cent on Thursday.
Eurozone producer prices: In figures to be published tomorrow, eurozone
producer prices are tipped to have fallen by 0.1 per cent in September. This
would take the annual rate of price rises to 8 per cent, from 8.5 per cent.
Eurozone retail sales: In figures due on Wednesday, eurozone retail
sales are forecast to have fallen by 0.3 per cent in September, after a 0.3
per cent rise in August.
German industrial production: Figures due out on Friday are tipped to
show that German industrial production rose by 0.5 per cent in September,
after a 3.4 per cent increase in August.
US pending home sales: Figures due out on Friday are expected to show
that US pending home sales fell by 3.5 per cent in September, after a 7.4
per cent increase in August.
US unemployment: Initial US jobless claims are forecast to have fallen
slightly in the last week of October. Figures due out on Thursday are
expected to show that the number of people signing up for jobless benefits
fell to 475,000, from 479,000 the previous week.
US manufacturing activity: The ISM index of US manufacturing activity,
due out today, is predicted to have fallen to 42 in October, from 43.5 in
September. The index of prices paid is tipped to have fallen to 48, from
53.5. The ISM nonmanufacturing data, due out on Wednesday, are forecast to
show a fall to 48, from 50.2 in September. Any figure below 50 indicates
contraction.
US factory orders: Figures due out tomorrow are tipped to show a 1.5
per cent fall in US factory orders in September, after a 4 per cent decline
in August.
Banking
& finance
Royal Bank of Scotland: The banking group is set to update the market
this week on its current situation alongside the publication of its
prospectus to raise further funds as part of the Government’s £37 billion
bank bailout.
HBOS: The takeover of HBOS by Lloyds TSB will come under fresh pressure
this week as the Halifax and Bank of Scotland owner faces a possible
counterbid from an unnamed foreign suitor while being forced to write off an
estimated £5 billion because of falling asset values.
Construction
& property
Mapeley: The Private Finance Initiative specialist will report its
third-quarter results on Thursday when investors hope it will address fears
that Fortress, he US hedge fund that owns 57 per cent of Mapeley will have
to sell its stake to repay debts in the United States.
Balfour Beatty: The construction company will give a trading update
tomorrow. Analysts believe that it is relatively well placed to survive the
economic downturn.
Consumer
goods
Robert Wiseman: The Scottish dairy group will report its first-half
results on Friday. Profits are forecast to be down to £11 million, from
£18.2 million last time, as the higher costs of oil, plastic and bulk cream
were not passed on to its customers.
Real ale: Sales of real ale rose by 8 per cent in the first half of the
year, bucking the wider beer market decline, according to figures from the
Society of Independent Brewers.
Engineering
Volkswagen: The German state of Lower Saxony has asked investment banks
to advise it about options concerning its 20 per cent stake in Volkswagen
after the chaos caused last week by the emergence of Porsche’s control of 75
per cent of the carmaker. (The Sunday Telegraph)
Health
Smith & Nephew: The medical devices company will announce its
third-quarter results on Thursday when investors will be hoping for more
detail on legal issues related to the group’s acquisition of Plus, its Swiss
orthopaedics rival.
Leisure
Punch Taverns: The pubs group will announce its full-year results
tomorrow, with analysts expecting pretax profits of about £265 million, down
from £302 million last time. Revenues are forecast to fall by 10 per cent to
£1.5 billion.
Rank Group: The gaming operator will open a G Casino in Aber-deen on
Thursday, its sixth venue under the G brand but the first in Scotland. The
£6 million casino will create 120 jobs.
Hospitality and leisure sector: Insolvencies in the hospitality and
leisure sector jumped by 60 per cent in the third quarter compared with last
year, and the outlook for next year is even gloomier, according to figures
from PricewaterhouseCoopers.
Media
Virgin Media: The communications and content group is expected to
announce that it has successfully delayed repayments on its £4.3 billion
debts for three years. The cable operator was due to refinance its debt next
year, but with the credit markets in turmoil this may have proved
impossible. (The Sunday Telegraph)
BSkyB: The satellite broadcaster has entered exclusive talks to acquire
Tiscali, the troubled internet provider, and is understood to have lodged an
indicative bid of about £450 million for the Italian company’s UK operation.
News Corporation, parent company of The Times, has a 39.1 per cent
stake in BSkyB. (The Sunday Times)
Park Resorts: The caravan park operator has called in advisers to
examine possible mergers with rival holiday groups. GI Partners, the US
buyout group, has hired Hawkpoint to assess strategic options for Park
Resorts, which received a £15 million capital injection from GI earlier this
year. (The Sunday Times)
Natural
resources
Rio Tinto: European regulators are this week expected to threaten to
stop the proposed takeover of Rio Tinto, the mining group, by BHP Billiton
because of the dominance that the pair have over the world’s supply of iron
ore. A merged BHP-Rio would control about a third of the seaborne iron ore
trade, thanks to their mines in Australia. (The Sunday Times)
Retailing
Marks & Spencer: The high street retailer will announce its
half-year figures tomorrow when it is expected to report pretax profits down
by 36 per cent to £290 million, from £451.8 million a year ago. In the three
months to the end of September, like-for-like sales fell by 6.1 per cent -
the worst quarter since the beginning of 2005.
Tesco: The supermarket group is the British company best placed to
weather a recession and emerge stronger, according to a “survivability”
index compiled by BDO Stoy Hayward, the accountant and business adviser, and
Verdict, the retail analyst.
Support
Services
The Priory: The chain of healthcare clinics is seeking hundreds of
millions of pounds from a private equity backer in an effort to secure a
£1.5 billion merger with Four Seasons, the troubled care homes operator.
Philip Scott, the Priory’s chief executive, has asked UBS, the investment
bank, to advise him on the talks with a group of buyout groups, including
Apax Partners and Kohlberg Kravis Roberts. (The Sunday Telegraph)
Technology
Panasonic: The Japanese electronics group is expected to unveil plans
to buy Sanyo, its smaller rival, this week in a deal aimed at creating a
global “battery super-power” to dominate a future era of electric cars.
Telecoms
BT: The telecoms company is understood to be seeking changes to its
final salary pension scheme as it struggles to meet its future liabilities
and faces having to cut dividends to bolster its pension funding. The
company is reported to be in talks with unions to raise the retirement agre
for active scheme members from 60 to 65, and to base pensions on average
salaries earned, rather than on final salary.
Transport
FirstGroup: The bus and rail group is set to announce a 40 per cent
rise in pretax profits to £105 million tomorrow as car drivers switch to
public transport in the face of steep petrol prices.
British Airways: The carrier’s planned multimillion-pound takeover of
Go Air, the Indian airline based in Bombay, has been derailed by legal
problems. BA had wanted to take a controlling or significant minority share,
with senior industry sources saying that it was ready to pay up to £371.2
million for the stake. It is understood that BA may negotiate a marketing
alliance with Go Air instead, with the Indian airline using BA flight codes
on its domestic network. (The Sunday Times)
Utilities
International Power: The power plant company will update the market on
its trading conditions on Thursday. It is expected to talk about how the
current market conditions are affecting its plans for Asian expansion.
BizzEnergy: Britain’s biggest independent energy supplier may collapse
into administration after struggling to refinance its debts. The company
hired KPMG last week to conduct a quick auction and was hoping to find a
buyer soon. If it does not, it could file for administration, putting 160
jobs at risk. Its problems will raise fresh questions about the
competitive-ness of Britain’s energy supply market, which is dominated by
the big six utilities. (The Sunday Times)
Welsh Power: The independent energy supplier has hired Lexicon Partners
to sell the company for up to £250 million. Sources said that the most
likely bidders would include EDF Energy, Intergen and ESB of Ireland. Welsh
Power is owned by financial investors led by DE Shaw and Deutsche Bank. (The
Sunday Times)
