Economics
Retail sales are expected to have fallen during September. Official
figures to be released on Thursday are predicted to show that sales fell by
0.6 per cent, after a 1.2 per cent rise in August. This will push the annual
increase in sales to 2.2 per cent, down from 3.3 per cent.
The economy is expected to have contracted in the third quarter,
raising fears that the country has entered a recession. Official figures out
on Friday are tipped to show that output shrank by 0.2 per cent, after
stalling in the second quarter. This will push the annual rise in output
down to 0.5 per cent, from 1.5 per cent.
German producer prices are expected to have fallen by 0.4 per cent in
September when figures are released today. This will come after a 0.6 per
cent decline in prices in August and will push the annual increase to 7.6
per cent.
French consumer spending is forecast to have risen slightly in
September, after an increase in consumer confidence. Figures due to be
published on Thursday are tipped to show that spending rose by 0.4 per cent,
after a 0.3 per cent fall in August. US existing home salesare
forecast to have risen slightly during September. Data due out on Friday are
expected to show that there were 4.93 million sales in September, up from
4.91 million during August.
Chinese producer prices The pace of Chinese producer price inflation is
tipped to have eased during September. Figures due out today are expected to
show that prices rose by 9.7 per cent year on year, after a 10.1 per cent
increase in August.
Chinese economic growth is expected to have slowed slightly during the
third quarter. Data due to be published today is tipped to show that GDP
rose by 9.7 per cent between July and September, after expanding by 10.1 per
cent in the previous quarter.
Chinese inflation is tipped to have eased during September. Figures due
to be released today are forecast to show that inflation fell to 4.6 per
cent, from 4.9 per cent in August.
Banking
& finance
Prudential, the insurance group, is considering handing a 20 per cent
stake to a sovereign wealth fund to bankroll a bid for part of AIG, its
stricken American rival. Mark Tucker, chief executive, will confirm the move
when the group reports its third-quarter new business figures tomorrow.
Construction
& property
Land Securities, the FTSE 100 property group, is understood to have
abandoned plans to break up its £15 billion portfolio following the
departure of Paul Myners, its chairman, to become the new Minister for the
City.
Barratt Developments, the debt-laden housebuilder, has hired Credit
Suisse to look at ways of selling off 10,900 acres of its land portfolio to
raise cash. Analysts believe that Barratt would want to raise between £100
million and £200 million to go ahead with a deal.
Consumer
goods
Diageo, the drinks group, has issued $1 billion (£577 million) in bonds
paying a coupon of 7.375 per cent over five years. Diageo, whose brands
include Gordon’s Gin and Johnnie Walker whisky, said the proceeds will be
used for general corporate purposes.
Engineering
ABB, the Swiss engineering group, will report its third-quarter figures
on Thursday, with analysts expecting net profits to have risen by 32 per
cent to $975 million (£564 million).
Sunseeker Booming orders from Russia and the Middle East are behind the
record profits at Sunseeker, the Dorset-based luxury yacht builder. It said
that turnover for the year to July was up by 22 per cent to a record £293
million and profits after tax had risen by 19 per cent to £13.9 million.
Porvair, the US specialist filtration and environmental technology
group, said it is trading in line with management expectations for the year
to the end of November, with a good overall performance in the third quarter
and strong sales in September. It said that its order books are healthy, and
overall sales growth for the year is expected to be good.
Health
GlaxoSmithKline, Britain’s biggest drugs maker, is expected to report
falling profits again when it releases its third-quarter figures on
Wednesday. The group has so far this year trailed behind its performance in
2007 after a sharp fall in the sales of Avandia, its diabetes treatment.
Industrials
Indian steel makers say that they will have to cut production by 30 per
cent and postpone expansion projects if import duties are not raised and an
export tax is not eliminated.
Leisure
Coffee Republic said that a “toughening climate” was responsible for a
recent fall in sales. The coffee bar chain’s half-year like-for-like sales
fell by 0.2 per cent. Comparative sales for the first quarter to June 29 had
been up by 2.5 per cent, signalling a significant downturn in the past three
months.
Travelodge, the budget hotel group, and Aldi, the budget supermarket,
are working together to develop joint hotel and supermarket sites. The first
two projects are in Middlesbrough and Newquay. Travelodge said the alliance
would help the brands to take advantage of the opportunities arising from
the credit crunch.
Media
Channel 4 Lord Carter of Barnes, the newly created Communications
Minister, expects to hire a bank to help to value Channel 4, and said that
he will consider privatisation to help to resolve the commercial
broadcaster’s financial problems.
Natural
resources
The World Gold Council said that investors spent $2.8 billion (£1.6
billion) on gold on the world stock exchanges during the third quarter, as
individuals and companies fled the volatile share markets. This meant that
145 tonnes of gold were bought on the stock exchanges in the three months to
September, with the total held by investors hitting 1,000 tonnes for the
first time since the metal was introduced on the US bourse in 2004.
BP could appoint the former head of Norilsk Nickel, the Russian mining
giant, as the new chief executive of TNK-BP, its Russian joint venture,
within the next two weeks. Denis Morozov, who left Norilsk in a management
shake-up in July, is understood to be one of the names to make the final
shortlist drawn up by Whitehead Mann, the recruitment agency.
Royal Dutch Shell, the Anglo-Dutch oil group, completed its withdrawal
from the British wind energy sector after quietly selling out of the last
project that it had in this country. The company recently agreed to sell its
stake in the £800 million Cirrus Shell Flat Array, a 270MW project off the
Blackpool coast, to its partners ScottishPower and Dong Energy.
Retailing
Casual Male Retail Group, America’s biggest speciality retailer for
large men, is coming to Britain. It targets men over 6ft 2in or with a waist
of more than 42 inches and will initially launch two websites here before
opening high street stores. down will come when Home Retail reports its
half-year results on Wednesday. It is expected to deliver pretax profits of
£121 million, down by 19 per cent from the £149.8 million reported last year.
Support
services
Real Office Group, the London-listed support services company, said
that Leander has made a partial cash offer to buy a 74.9 per cent stake in
the company, valuing it at about £2.8 million. Leander is a holding company
that was set up to acquire two businesses focused on the design and building
of commercial interiors.
Four Seasons, the nursing homes operator, is expected to be put up for
sale in the coming weeks for half the £1.4 billion sum that was paid for it
only two years ago. The company breached its banking agreements earlier this
year. Banking advisers said that Four Seasons could draw offers of about
£800 million or less. The Qatar Investment Authority bought the company in
2006 and will see its £110 million equity stake wiped out.
Technology
Morse, the London-listed IT group, said that its first-quarter
operating loss before exceptional charges had widened to £500,000, from
£200,000 last time, and added that the trading environment continues to be
“very challenging”. Improvements that it had made from a restructuring have
been offset by year-on-year declines in gross margins in some of its
business units in relation to the collapse of Lehman Brothers, the US
investment bank.
Telecoms
KPN, the Dutch telecoms group, will report its third-quarter earnings
on Wednesday, when investors will be keen to have confirmation of its share
buyback policy.
Cable & Wireless said that it has postponed plans for a demerger
until next year because of the turmoil in the financial markets. The
London-listed telecoms group had been expected to announce that it would
split its British arm from its international operations on November 10, when
it will report its half-year results.
Transport
Stobart, the transport and logistics group, will report its interim
results on Thursday. It said that it is riding out the economic slow-down so
far. The company - formed last year by a merger between Westbury, the ports
group, and Eddie Stobart, the haulier - had said in July that trading was in
line with management expectations.
Utilities
Water UK, the industry body, has admitted that the credit crunch could
make it more expensive for water companies to raise the £27 billion of
investment that they need to fund future development, but emphasised that
they would try to keep a lid on price rises for consumers.
Share tips
The Sunday Telegraph: buy Pure Circle ( consumer goods)
The Mail on Sunday: hold Alliance & Leicester (banking &
finance); buy SSL International (health)
