Robin Pagnamenta
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This week's meeting of Opec ministers in Vienna is likely to be a prickly affair.
Because it has fallen during Ramadan, all the serious talks are being held late at night so delegates could be forgiven for being more irritable than usual.
Moreover, following an almost 30 per cent slide in crude prices since July, some of the 13-member countries of the oil producers’ cartel are unhappy anyway.
In particular, hardline members Iran and Venezuela are likely to attack Saudi Arabia for bowing to US pressure earlier this summer to independently boost production to help relieve pressure on oil prices, which had soared to record highs of $147 per barrel.
In retrospect, that increase appears to have succeeded in its aims. Prices had dropped to as low as $105 per barrel last week, delighting oil consumers but leaving the governments of many poorer producer countries facing unwelcome budget shortfalls.
They now want to implement a cut in production to help put a floor under prices.
More moderate members, including the Saudis, are stressing the need for caution regarding a cut, fearing the implications of another spike in prices for the fragile global economy.
In any event, a formal reduction of Opec’s current production quota of 27.25 million barrels per day is unlikely.
This is because Opec production now stands significantly higher than this, at around 28 million barrels, with Saudi Arabia’s raise in July accounting for the lion’s share of the surplus.
A more likely outcome when a final communique is finally issued in the early hours of Wednesday morning may be a call for members to adhere more closely to existing targets; a move which, if observed, would amount to a de facto cut.
However, there are questions over whether even this will transpire.
That is because, as the world’s largest producer and Opec's’s most powerful member, Saudi Arabia’s position is, as ever, critical and all the signs are that Riyadh is happy with prices at around current levels. Indeed, it might like to see them fall slightly further, perhaps to the high double digits.
Saudi Arabia is not only more attuned to Western concerns than some other members but is also fearful of the long-term impact of high oil prices on global demand by forcing consumers to seek alternative forms of energy
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