Lawsuits, allegations of spying, the detention of a chief executive for questioning and a campaign of regulatory intimidation – BP’s Russian affiliate is being buried in a political mire as a cabal of oligarchs seek to gain commercial advantage in a struggle for control of TNK-BP.

At one level, this is a Russian story of greed, power and abuse. Five years ago BP made peace with a group of tycoons with whom it was previously a sworn enemy. Lord Browne of Madingley, BP’s former chief, made a pact with Mikhail Fridman, owner of Tyumen Oil, which had dragged BP’s main Russian oil production unit through the bankruptcy courts. It was a 50-50 partnership with no shareholder in control, a structure that Vladimir Putin, the Russian Prime Minister, has criticised as a source of conflict.

TNK-BP was initially a success that benefited from political approval. But the climate has changed and the Kremlin has made clear that it wants Russian control of all oil and gas assets. Gazprom has made equally clear that it wants TNK-BP and it is widely assumed that the end-game is a buyout of the oligarchs and the issuance of a single controlling share to the gas giant. The tycoons fear a stitch-up and a bad deal, so push for advantage, seeking control to boost their negotiating position. They want to be key players in a settlement and see a window of opportunity in the confusion over who controls Russia. Is it Prime Minister Putin, the nationalist autocrat, or is it President Medvedev, the former lawyer?

It is a dangerous game, not only because Gazprom is controlled by irritable men in the Kremlin but because Russian oil is a vital building block in the global house of energy.

Even as BP was in talks with its Russian partners this week trying to reach a deal, the International Energy Agency was pointing a finger at nonOpec oil output. Oil production outside the cartel will barely rise this year, mainly because over the past year Russia has been transformed from our best set of energy cards to a busted flush.

Over the past four years, Russia has added more than a million barrels per day to the market, but the flow from the Russian tap is dwindling and the world still wants more.

The struggle for control of TNK-BP matters because the BP affiliate controls Samotlor, a big Russian oilfield, and the joint venture pumps about 1.6 million barrels per day (bpd), a big proportion of the 9.5 million bpd that Russia contributes to our daily global diet of crude.

Meanwhile, in a curious sideshow this week, Gazprom’s chief this week predicted that the oil price would reach $250 per barrel. It looked like bombast, but then again, Gazprom probably has a pretty good idea how much oil will be flowing from Siberia next year.

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