David Robertson, Business Correspondent
We've made some changes
to The Sunday Times
Petrol is likely to hit £5 a gallon today as “hot money” from speculators drives the oil price to record levels.
Lehman Brothers, the investment bank, has estimated that fuel is 30 per cent overpriced because of an influx of money into the oil market from investment funds.
It believes that hot money accounts for between $20 to $30 of the recent increase in oil prices and that about $40 billion (£20 billion) has been invested in the sector so far this year — equal to all the money pumped into oil last year.
The price hit a record of nearly $120 a barrel yesterday after North Sea production was shut down because of the Grangemouth refinery strike. In early trading, the price of US light crude rose $1 to $119.93. Prices later retreated to settle up 23 cents at $118.75 a barrel. The rise came on top of a $2.50 gain on Friday and leaves the price up about 25 per cent since the start of the year. Brent rose 40 cents to $116.74 and analysts are predicting further rises.
Petrol averaged £1.0977 a litre yesterday, translating into £4.99 a gallon, and it is expected to pass the £5 barrier as early as today.
The situation may get even worse in the coming months. Chakib Khelil, the Algerian Energy Minister and president of Opec, said that crude could reach $200 a barrel.
The price rise comes despite a 400,000 barrel-a-day reduction in physical demand from the United States, which is consuming less because of its economic slowdown. This has been more than offset by funds seeking alternative investments to the falling US dollar.
Michael Waldron, energy analyst for Lehman Brothers, said: “There has been an increase in financial demand as many funds have poured into oil as a hedge against inflation and the weakening US dollar. This has been the main factor in driving the price in recent months. We do not think the fundamentals justify oil at $120 and, without financial demand, we think it would be trading at $20 to $30 below that level.”
Analysts fear that the price will rise even higher as supply shortages get worse in the coming months while both physical and financial demands increase.
On the supply side, shortages may occur if there is a bad hurricane season in the Gulf of Mexico and because the oil industry typically saves maintenance work at fields such as the North Sea for good weather.
Rapid economic growth in the Middle East has led to a large increase in energy consumption, which is diverting oil and gas away from export markets to feed domestic needs. This has exacerbated the effect of rising energy demand in the region.
Yesterday’s increases came as the workers at Grangemouth, which is operated by Ineos, a chemicals company, began the second day of a two-day strike over pension benefits.
This forced the closure of the 700,000 barrel-a-day Forties pipeline and sparked fears that Scotland and the North of England could face petrol shortages. Grangemouth supplies 10 per cent of the UK’s petrol but also produces power for BP’s Kinneil plant, which processes the oil from the Forties pipeline.
The high price of oil is having an impact on the global economy, with airlines failing and drivers paying more to fill their cars. Eos, the business-class-only airline, went into Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection yesterday and joins at least six other carriers that have also been grounded in the past two weeks by high costs.
Enjoy screenings of all the classic films you love, plus take advantage of two-for-one tickets
We explore leisure activities that are safe and suitable for all of the family
Times Online's new TV show helps you make the right decisions for your pet
See the best entries in this year's competition
Your brain is capable of more than you might think...
An interactive preview of the brand new For Your Eyes Only exhibition
The latest travel news plus the best hotels and gadgets for business travellers

Love Sudoku? Play our brand new interactive game: with added functionality and daily prizes

Are you irritable when you return from work? Drained of emotion? You could be suffering from boreout
Prepare for some shock and awe, petrol lovers. Despite the greens trying to wipe it out, the car is about to offer us the most exciting year ever
We've trawled the brochures and websites to find this summer’s best holidays for every taste and budget

Overseas contacts and local business information

Find a course, arrange a game and save money
2002/02
£59,995
The Midlands
2008/08
£169,950
Scotland
2007/57
£35,000
South East England
Great car insurance deals online
Competitive
CyDen
London
To £28k
Barclaycard
Various (outside London)
£
£40,000 - £50,000 + benefits
Lloyds Pharmacy
Coventry
To £38k
Barclaycard
Northampton/Liverpool
2 Bathrooms, Balcony and Garden
£359,950
Beautiful Gardens w/ stunning Thames Views
Apts From £249,950
Mortgages, bank acc & money transfers to help you buy abroad
Explore mystical Jordan
From £1030 for 7nts 4*
to USA's Most Cosmopolitan City; San Francisco!
£POA
Book Now for Winter 08/09 and Get 10% off!
Great travel insurance deals online
Contact our advertising team for advertising and sponsorship in Times Online, The Times and The Sunday Times. Search globrix.com to buy or rent UK property.
© Copyright 2008 Times Newspapers Ltd.
This service is provided on Times Newspapers' standard Terms and Conditions. Please read our Privacy Policy.To inquire about a licence to reproduce material from Times Online, The Times or The Sunday Times, click here.This website is published by a member of the News International Group. News International Limited, 1 Virginia St, London E98 1XY, is the holding company for the News International group and is registered in England No 81701. VAT number GB 243 8054 69.
Gasoline Hogs(I am one too), will not cut back on gasoline consumption until the prices hurt in the wallet. We are finally using less oil now. Car pool, use trains, if available, buses, etc........on one wants to lose their "personal freedom," and, most will continue to drive. Live frugally!
Howard Davis, Torrington, USA
its not about oil consumption and supply and demand!!
The investors are running everything. They make money while we all pay for high prices at the pump.
http://www.articlesbase.com/economics-articles/the-oil-price-conspiracy-pawns-kings-401544.html
Lets do something about about it guys come on!
simo, Toronto,
This is a conspiracy guys. ITS NOT ABOUT SUPPLY&DEMAND
These big investment company's are controlling everything!
They receive money as we pay higher prices at the pump because they MAKE prices go up by "speculating"
we need to stop them somehow, we need to make a change. and stop them.
simo, Toronto,
If everyone in North America reduced their consumption by 10%, that would save approx. 2 million barrels a day. What would that do to the supply and demand equation?
Tim, Toronto,
The price of Diesel has been over £5 per gallon for some time. My local Sainsburys is charging 118.9p per litre. That is £5.40 per gallon. I notice the government are keeping their mouths shut regarding the extra 4p per litre they are making in VAT on the increases. They don't care. More tax to burn
phil, Rugby, England
Why oh why does the media have a fixation about a gallon! I stopped thinking in terms of gallons years ago. Can anyone buy a gallon of petrol in the UK? Using gallons in headlines is self defeating as I reckon no one understands the impact. However, as Dave said earlier, £1.25 a litre hits home!
Geoff, Stafford, UK
Andrew Evans, London: You CAN use oil to hedge against the falling dollar; if the price of oil rises faster than the dollar falls you'll make a profit. And that's exactly what's been happening. Plus, when this many investors are buying dollars to speculate on oil, it also props up the dollar...
Latch, Cambridge, UK
The "term oil"or tumoil in the Oil/Gas industry is compounded by the shortage of vessels and equipment and the replacement of "ancient "equipment now doubled in cost in the last 2-3 years .
The price of petrol will always increase ...Gas to liquids may be the future for clean fuel .
A.Laing, aberdeen, scotland
"Speculation" is not a dirty word. Remember in a "trade" one supplies and the other buys - it is two sided. The traders are lining the pockets of the oil producers, who pay paxes from whom the government takes big taxes (to spend on things like benefits and NHS).
Mark, London,
What a joke. You cannot hedge against the falling dollar using oil.The reason for this is that because oil is priced in dollars you have to buy dollars before you buy oil. Oil contracts expire every month when you have to take delivery of the oil. Oil is going up because the supply peaked 3 years ago.
Andrew Evans, London, UK
The government has benefited from the high prices, their revenue increases with prices, so they have been enjoying extra billions, they don't want to reduce it.
But everything is affected. The country depends on oil for food and product distribution. I will be cripppled in the near future.
James, Derby, UK
We all know this, but when will the government stop speculation like this. People should be forced to take delivery of all goods they purchase. The rich get richer - under Labour without question. This is success built on the backs of the poor and downtrodden. Sounds like Labour!
Frederick, London, UK
We have lousy outdated capitalist Govt and CEO's who are useless bunch of ???? Only one person in this world can teach them a joly good lesson and THAT IS Hugo Chavez.
Harish, Croydon, UK
Wellcome to Russia to fill your cars for $0,8 per litre
Boris, Nizhnevartovsk, Russia
It's time the goverment cut the tax on fuel.
It's obvious they do not want everyone to switch to public transport otherwise they would lower the fares but then they would get far less tax and the british public just sit back and take it.
Ken, London,
Time to introduce new technologies and stop being held hostage by those in the middle east and "Big Oil".
John, London,
Perhaps U-Turn Brown will reverse his decision to increase Tax on fuel by 2p this October?
adrian, aldershot, England
End user licences required for thsoe oeprating on patroleum exchanges above certain value order size. It makes no sense to allow funds to purchase aseets they never intend to take delivery of. OPEC is right supply is sufficient for demand, the source of this price rise lies elsewhere and needs fixed
Michael, London,
If prices continue to rise like this, it won't be long before it'll make economic sense for us all to stay at home on the dole.
GK, Chester,
SURELY WE HAVE REACHED THE POINT OF CAPITALISM GONE MAD
Speculators are causing chaos on a global scale; in food, housing, banking ...
It is sheer madness!
John, Liverpool, uk
Time to rope in the oil producers and speculators I think.
Cut demand dramatically.
So, use buses, car share on the commute, walk to school, cycle, introduce a mandatory 10mph reduction on all speed limits.
Who in Gordon's star array of cabinet ministers will take the lead?......and see it through!.
calum mcneill, Portsoy, Scotland
yes but only in britain
bob thorpe, brighton, uk
it's already £1.25 per litre (not a gallon) on the motorway
Dave, London, UK