Angela Jameson
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Motorists could find themselves paying £5 a gallon for petrol this summer, after a leading energy broker gave warning that $120 a barrel oil was on its way.
The oil price surged closer to $115 a barrel today, breaking new records as the weakening dollar forced investors to seek haven in commodities. Prices rose 67 cents to $114.46 a barrel this morning. In London, futures for Brent crude were up 69 cents to $112.27 a barrel.
Further increases are expected this afternoon when a key report on US fuel stockpiles is released.
Robert Laughlin, energy broker with MF Global, said: "Oil at over $120 a barrel is highly likely in the second quarter because OPEC don't want to give us fresh barrels despite being asked by George Bush, Gordon Brown and everyone else."
"The trend for prices is certainly upward and I would not be surprised to see $120 a barrel oil between now and the end of June," Mr Laughlin said.
Drivers across the UK are paying a record average of 107.94p for a litre of unleaded petrol according to the latest figures from the AA. Every $2 dollar increase in the cost of oil adds roughly a 1p to a litre of petrol at the pump. However, it takes about four to six weeks for the impact of rising oil prices to be seen at the forecourt.
Diesel broke through the £5 a gallon barrier more than a month ago and is now selling at a record 117.13p — or £5.32 a gallon.
The surging cost of petrol at the pumps means that the cost of filling up a typical 50 litre family petrol car is £7.63 higher than last year, with a diesel version £11.09 dearer to fuel.
Luke Bosdet, an AA spokesman, said: "We are getting pretty close to the £5 gallon and we have already seen some motorway service stations charging 110p a litre for petrol."
Contracts for New York's light sweet crude topped $114 a barrel for the first time yesterday, hitting $114.08 in after hours trading. Brent North Sea crude for May reached a record $112.08.
Collins Stewart, the UK broker, also slashed forecasts for airlines after adjusting its models to take into account a sustained period of oil over $110 a barrel.
The broker made cuts of 12 to 53 per cent on earnings. The worst affected, according to its model, are Aer Lingus and Ryanair.
Supply constraints are expected to be revealed by the US Department of Energy later today. Bad weather in the Gulf has already caused problems this week. On Monday Mexico said that it had closed four export terminals while Shell said that shipments through its 1.1 million-barrel-per-day Calpine pipeline in the southern United States had been temporarily disrupted.
Reports also emerged of minor supply outages in Nigeria, Africa’s biggest oil producer, after rebels caused a fire at the Beniboye oil plants in the Delta State of Nigeria.
"The physical oil market appears tight and appears highly sensitive to news of any supply interruption,” John Mayer, an analyst with Fairfax, said.
Oil prices in the US traditionally surge in the summer, the so-called driving season, when motorists drive across country for their holidays and energy consumption in the home peaks, due to air conditioning.
Traders forecast that the supply issues would continue to have a greater impact on the oil price than some signs of weakening demand from a slowing US economy, forcing the oil price still higher.
Oil also continues to benefit from an inflow of money as investors seek higher returns than they can get in financial markets at present.
Opec left its estimate of growth in world oil demand in 2008 unchanged on Tuesday, arguing that while high prices and slowing economies will brake demand in major industrialised countries, appetite for crude will remain robust elsewhere.
The cartel, which supplies 40 per cent of the world's crude oil, said that soaring prices reflected the volatility of the oil price largely due to external factors including financial market turmoil, the weaker US dollar and a worsening outlook for the US economy.
Opec is forecasting world oil demand to grow by 1.2 million barrels per day in 2008 to average 86.97 million barrels per day.
The International Energy Agency (IEA), which advises major industrialised nations, recently reduced its estimate of global oil demand this year to 87.2 million barrels per day, 310,000 barrels per day less than its previous estimate.
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What is this gallon thing of what you speak ?
Isn't time to join the 21st century ??
Gareth, Brighton,
It is ridiculous to say that pump prices are not increased as the barrel price increases. Everyday we see a penny added on per litre despite the fact that the garages have already paid for the fuel at a lower price. Greed for gain is ruining motoring for all. Motorists in the UK are hit hard by all the efforts of the govt to get us off the roads and into the worst public transport system in the world. What will the oil companies do when we can't afford to fill our tanks anymore?? What will the Arabs do when hydrogen becomes the fuel of choice?? Isn't it time world govts stepped in and made heavier demands to increase supply. If investors are driving the price, why allow this?? There are several questions that need to be answered, but if the trend for increases continues then there will be public revolt.
By the way, Mr Bush and Blair, what was the price of oil before the gulf war in 2003 that was meant to secure oil supplies to the west?? About $20 i remember. Thanks!
Robert Wood, Reading, UK
I have no doubt that teh differential between petrol and diesel prices has been manipulated artificially specifically to avoid the "Petrol now £5/gallon" headlines that would accompany a rise to £1.10/litre. Diesel doesn't have the same emotional resonance.
Over Easter in Dublin, the differential between petrol and diesel prices in petrol stations carrying the same branding as the ones on our High Streets was one per cent.
Isn't it time the fuel companies moved on. Surely from a marketing pioint of view, by averaging the prices down to around £1.12, motorists would percieve better value than the high diesel numbers they're seeing now.
Harry O'Neill, Saffron Walden, UK
Another symptom of Sterling devaluation as the pound is now falling against the US dollar.
Paul, Coventry,
The biggest winner in increasing petrol prices is the taxman. I understand that 80% of the price at pumps is tax and for every 1p on the price of petrol the taxman adds 4p. Is that really correct? If so no wonder Gordon Brown is silent on the subject but itsnt it time they fix the tax take? Why should they (Govt) exaggerate our pain in this way?
Gavin, london, uk
It's time Brown and Co paid for their petrol and heating oil from their own pockets
Then they too would they be in the real world
Colin
colin ling, colchester,
If all you wingeing motorists are fed up with the price of fuel why dont you start to buy smaller cars and drive them at lower speeds?
Clive Stringer, Eggesford, Devon
Soon it will double the second-hand value of a 10 year old car if it has a full tank of petrol.The contents in the tank will be worth more than some cars and you will have to declare what the fuel guage read after it has been nicked.
stephen hulton, eure, france
Please, will some expert pundit tell us:
WHY IN THE UK IS DEISEL MORE COSTLY THAN PETROL, WHEN IT IS CHEAPER TO REFINE?
Why?
Janice, Witney, UK
Speculators high-jacked this market, in fact they even lie to drive up the prices. When they've destroyed the world economy, and made lots of money, they'll have nothing to spend it on. Have a nice day.
G Reid, Oshawa Ontario, Canada
Gold price is falling so rapidly even though the banking crisis is yet to find its depth. Does it mean the price of oil too will fall dramatically since it seems to be overinvested? Isn't it too unusual for the price to more than double in such a short period of time? Something else is driving it bcoz demand has only increased in single digit margins over a corresponding period. I am just a layman posting my observation.
Jagadish, Bromley, UK
wake up people...and Brown/ Darling in particular, in case you didn't know there are 4.54 litres per gallon. Still have your attention?
My local sainsbury's charges £115.9 per litre for diesel. That's £5.23 per gallon.
THE £5 GALLON IS ALREADY HERE. WAKE UP!!!!!!
Phil, Rugby, England (not state)
Why would OPEC increase production - they are selling a product of finite quantity, the world needs it and will pay whatever it takes.
The only calculation for OPEC is, when does oil become so expensive that it becomes cheaper for the US to invade and take control.
Rob, Bradford,
Just to bring the picture from other places in Europe as well...
Here in Greece where salaries are 3 times less than UK and cost of living in Athens tends to become one of the highest in Europe the prices are 1.15 Euros (0.95 GBP) / Litre for Petrol and 0.78 Euros (0.62 GBP) / Litre for Heating oil....
These prices have been greatly increased since last year...so I guess this overall oil increase will affect all of us. I believe it is high time the people responsible for all these did something.
Alexkara, Athens,
I've never paid for fuel in gallons (even when buying petrol in Canada or New Zealand) so no idea what you're all talking about.
Luke, London, UK
We are at, or very close to, Peak Oil. Russian oil exports are in decline as are Saudi Arabia's, Mexico's, Iran's, Kuwait's etc. The UK's North Sea production is declining by 9% per year and the UK is, once more, an oil importing nation. Meanwhile, the Chinese work very hard and want to have our standard of living.
In view of the above, why are any of you surprised about the price of oil rising. In the not too distant future, the price of oil being much less than bottled mineral water will seem like fantasy!
Adjust to reality Mssrs. Brown / Blair / Bush
Alfred, Isle of Wight, UK
Gordon is apparently concerned about the financial pressure on families. If this were true then he would cut the tax on fuel as the easy way to help, but he won't because he really isn't.
David Thijm, Storubridge, UK
The strategy to reduce interest rates is causing the pound to fall, including falling against the dollar ,which is itself falling against other currencies. This has the effect of amplifying the increased dollar price of oil.
This will eventually affect the price of everythig irrespective of what the official figures say.
Given that economists and the media seem determined to encourage lower interest rates the result will be ever increasing prices - a downward spiral
James, NI, UK
To be more precise, in our village, Bellingham UK Northumberland it is already £5.76/UK Gallon, (or £5.58/US Dry Gallon) or maybe and that could be the remark perhaps the article is referring to, a staggering £4.80/US Liquid Gallon. Anyway I've never seen UK so relaxed in accepting £1.27/liter. When I arrived in the UK in the early '90s, trucks barricaded highways and I couldn't get home when the price approached £0.89/liter. Now?
Okay, we did accept (a society crippling) making 2.5 times house-price; as a result, just wait and the bread and patrol will be 2.5 times higher. Pity our wages (and a lot of other countries) aren't following it (yet).
gerard van der veen, west woodburn, United Kingdom
It's not only road fuel that is expensive, I've just had to order 2000 ltrs of heating oil at 53.5p/ltr. Its getting to a point where we cannot heat our home properly due to the hyped up prices, oil wars and global warming myth. Come on Government sort it out.
Gerry Andrews, Devon, UK
Diesel is at £1.20 per litre at most garages at the moment. This time last year it would take £44.00 to fill the car now it takes over £65.00 roughly a 30% increase and that's just for a VW Golf !
Politicians have absolutely no idea what it is like in the real world, forget expense accounts, they should have to pay their way just like the rest of us poor fools !
Derek Conway , Worcester, UK
For those of us who have to use super unleaded, due to having a turbocharged car, it's been over £5 a gallon for a long time. I've paid £1.19 at a motorway service station already. But at the end of the day most of that price is Gordon Brown's tax. That's the thing that needs fixing.
D Harrison, Liverpool,
A year ago, diesel was around 3p/litre more expensive than petrol. Now the difference is closer to 10p/litre.
Anyone know why?
Jon Darrington, Leeds,
Where are all those lunatics that want to stop bio-fuels and keep relying on oil? Face it dudes, we're damned if we do and we're damned if we don't: Either we produce bio-fuels and the demand drives food-prices up or else we don't produce bio-fuels and oil prices will cost-push food prices up.
Rui, Lisbon, Portugal
What do you mean "looming"? It is already over £5 for a gallon of diesel up here in Scotland.
Nobby Clark, Perth,