David Robertson, Business Correspondent
We've made some changes
to The Sunday Times
The $60 billion battle for control of Norilsk Nickel is beginning to resemble a Politburo power struggle as some of Russia’s most powerful men manoeuvre against each other.
The cast in this latest Moscow drama includes five billionaire oligarchs and at stake is control of the Russian resources industry.
Oleg Deripaska, who is said to be Russia’s richest man, has agreed to buy the 25 per cent stake in Norilsk owned by Mikhail Prokhorov, but this deal now appears to be in trouble.
Mr Prokhorov’s Onexim investment vehicle is understood to have told Mr Deripaska’s Rusal, one of the world’s largest aluminium producers, that it has not met the terms of the sale agreement.
Mr Prokhorov is said to be receiving about $5 billion in cash and an 11 per cent stake in Rusal in exchange for his Norilsk shares.
If Rusal succeeds in buying the Norilsk holding, it is likely to push for a full takeover, which will create the world’s fourth-largest mining group with a market capitalisation of about $100 billion.
Standing against Mr Deripaska and his Rusal partner, Viktor Vekselberg, is Vladimir Potanin, who also owns 25 per cent of Norilsk.
Mr Potanin and Mr Prokhorov have apparently had a huge falling out and are in the process of splitting their jointly held mining to media empire.
In an attempt to block Rusal, Mr Potanin has forged an alliance with yet another billionaire, Alisher Usmanov, who owns Gazmetal — an iron ore producer. This is where Moscow watchers say the rivalry between the oligarchs starts to get really complicated.
Mr Potanin is said to be proposing to use Norilsk shareholder funds to buy a 25 per cent stake in Gazmetal, allowing Mr Usmanov to use this cash to then buy out Mr Prokhorov.
This has concerned a number of London financial institutions that hold minority stakes in Norilsk because they will effectively be subsidising the acquisition of their own company.
The refusal of Mr Prokhorov’s Onexim vehicle to accept Rusal’s buyout terms is thought to be an indication that he is holding out for a better deal from Mr Usmanov.
If he succeeds in delaying the sale until the end of this month, the Rusal agreement will lapse and he will be free to sell his shares to the highest bidder. However, Rusal is thought to have warned Onexim that if it fails to honour the sales agreement, the situation will be resolved in a court.
At an extraordinary general meeting of Norilsk shareholders yesterday, investors rejected a vote on including Rusal-nominated directors on the company’s board. Those directors included both Mr Deripaska and Mr Vekselberg.
The rival camps of Deripaska-Vekselberg and Potanin-Usmanov are vying to become the dominant force in Russia’s resource sector and control of Norilsk is vital to their success.Norilsk is the world’s largest producer of nickel and has some of the best mineral assets in the world. Whichever side completes its merger will effectively become the mining equivalent to Rosneft and Gazprom in Russia.
The Kremlin is said to be ready to step in if the rivalry threatens to harm Russia’s national interests.
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