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Dmitri Medvedev, the victor in the Russian presidential election, appears to have lost little time in signalling that he intends to stick to his predecessor's tough stance with the outside world.
Within hours of his poll victory, Gazprom, the state-controlled energy giant that Mr Medvedev chairs, sharply reduced its gas supplies to Ukraine. It was the latest move in a simmering dispute over unpaid bills that also served as a shot across the bows to neighbouring countries seeking closer ties with the West.
This is not the first time that Gazprom has adopted such tactics, having suspended gas supplies to Ukraine in 2006. Similar disputes have arisen with Belarus and Georgia.
Nevertheless, business leaders in London and Moscow expressed confidence yesterday that the change in the country's presidency was unlikely to have an adverse impact on business relations between the two countries. “With [President] Putin still around, it's just going to be more of the same,” one British executive at a large UK energy company said.
Chris Baxter, chairman of the international business at Renaissance Capital, the investment bank, shrugged off concerns about Gazprom's long-running spat with Ukraine. “We expect a thawing in recent tense relationships [between Britain and Russia],” Mr Baxter said. “These things are always cyclical and there is too much fundamentally positive about Anglo-Russian positions for any dip to last very long.”
Overall, Mr Medvedev's style of government is likely to be less confrontational than that of his predecessor, Roland Nash, Renaissance's Moscow-based head of research, said. “A less combative Kremlin with the same focus on generating economic growth as the principal strategy for a resurgent Russia should be welcomed,” Mr Nash said.
With British exports to Russia worth more than £3 billion, the country is an important trade partner for industries including construction, financial services and energy.
Thus far, the chill in diplomatic ties with Russia which accompanied the murder of Alexander Litvinenko in London in 2006 has had relatively little impact on business relations with the UK, said Stuart Leasor, managing director of the PBN Company, a communications group that specialises in Russian companies seeking to list overseas.
Despite frosty political relations, 14 Russian companies listed in the City last year, up from ten in 2006.
Others adopt a more cautious stance. “Nobody knows what is going to happen yet,” said Sergei Kolushev, a native of Irkutsk who runs Eventica, an organiser of Russia-UK-focused business investment roadshows. “It is only when we see who Medvedev appoints as ministers that we will really get a sense of the direction that Russia is going to take.”
Mr Medvedev is not set to become president until May, at which point he is expected to step down from his position as chairman of Gazprom.
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