Booming demand for energy from China and the Middle East will drive global oil consumption up 2.5 per cent next year despite the growing threat of a recession in America, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). The Paris-based energy watchdog said yesterday that it expected global crude oil demand to grow by 2.1 million barrels a day in 2008, 200,000 barrels a day higher than its previous forecast.

Demand next year is now expected to reach 87.8 million barrels per day, the report said. The revised IEA forecast contrasted starkly with predictions also made yesterday by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) for growth of just 1.3 million barrels per day next year.

The IEA, adviser on energy issues to 27 industrialised countries, brushed aside Opec’s claims that a slowdown in America, the world’s biggest economy, would trigger a slump in global crude demand. Its report emphasised the likelihood of continued robust demand from developing countries.

“Mature economies are only supporting actors in our global demand growth projections,” the IEA said. “The bulk of 2008 demand growth remains within nonOECD countries, where regional growth patterns are expected to be similar to the past two years.”

The IEA also gave warning that high oil prices could act as a brake on global economic growth, by hitting consumer spending and eating into corporate profitability. It said the impact could be compounded if other areas of economic weakness emerge.

Some analysts questioned the IEA’s findings. “Historically, the IEA has always had an agenda to try to persuade Opec to put more oil in the market,” one said.

He pointed out that consumers in China and other big emerging markets such as India were insulated from high global crude prices by government subsidies. He said it was only a matter of time before recent price rises were passed on to consumers – a step that would probably choke off demand. In the short term, the IEA acknowledged that demand had slackened, trimming its winter 2007 demand forecast.

The latest IEA forecast has raised the prospect that fuel prices could head back towards $100 a barrel if supplies remain at present levels.

Opec, the cartel of 13 nations that controls 40 per cent of global crude production, opted this month to freeze output levels after rejecting calls for an increase of 500,000 barrels per day from the current daily output of 27.25 million barrels. Opec argued that the global market for crude oil was “well-supplied”.

The price of oil has remained volatile in recent months, falling recently to $89 a barrel from a high of $99.29 last month. In New York yesterday it was trading at $91.20.

Opec’s assessment of current oil supplies remains unchanged. It published a report this month saying it will keep its estimates unchanged for the end of this year into 2008. The cartel plans to decide at a special meeting in Vienna in February whether or not to increase oil supplies.

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