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Petrol prices have broken through the £1 a litre for the first time, it emerged today as oil prices moved ever closer to the $100 a barrier on mounting concerns about a winter fuel supply shortage and the weakening US dollar.
The AA said unleaded petrol averaged 100.08p yesterday - 13 per cent higher than at the start of the year - while diesel hit 103.32p.
More than 2,500 petrol stations across the UK are already charging more than £1 a litre for unleaded given the spiralling crude oil price.
The breakthrough came as the oil price topped $98 a barrel in early morning trading with US light, sweet crude for December rising to a new record of $98.03. London Brent crude also hit a new peak of $94.57, up $1.31 a barrel as Asian investors took advantage of the weakening dollar to buy oil.
The oil price has been marching toward the $100 point since mid-August, when investors began buying oil as a shelter from the US subprime mortgage crisis and sliding dollar.
Prices have climbed by almost $30 a barrel since then and analysts believe that it is only a matter of time before the symbolic $100 level is reached.
Dariusz Kowalczyk, chief investment strategist at CFC Seymour, told Reuters that $100 a barrel seemed inevitable. “I think we’ll get there,” he said. “The factors that have been driving the recent trend are still in place.”
A weekly US inventory report, out later today, is also expected to show that crude stocks in the world’s biggest energy consumer have fallen due to disruptions to Mexican imports, adding to fears over supplies ahead of the winter.
The US Energy Information Administration alerted investors to low winter supplies yesterday, saying stocks in industrialised nations would drop some 20 million barrels below the five-year average by the end of this year amid robust demand and continued caps on output from producer-group OPEC.
The EIA, the statistical wing of the Department of Energy, also sharply raised its forecast for US oil prices in 2008 to near $80 a barrel from its prior projection of $73.50.
Concerns over winter fuel supplies were also raised due to storms in the North Sea yesterday, which forced ConocoPhillips to say that it may have to shut down five of its 16 oil platforms on its 236,000 barrel per day (bpd) offshore Ekofisk field.
Rising prices were further supported by the weakening dollar, which makes oil more affordable for buyers in other currencies. The US dollar hit another low against the euro at $1.4666. Continuing problems in the global credit market have maintained the pressure on the dollar, as investors scent another Federal Reserve rate cut.
The pound went above the psychologically important $2.10 mark against the dollar, for the first time in more than sixteen years.
Speculation that China could be set to diversify its reserves away from the dollar has sent the currency plunging to its current level. This follows comments by vice chairman of China’s National People’s Congress Cheng Siwei, who said the country’s forex regulator will “shift” its foreign exchange holdings, and that China should consider shifting its forex reserves to “stronger” currencies.
Positive consumer confidence figures from the UK have also helped the pound against the dollar. Nationwide’s figures showed that consumer confidence dipped only marginally in October despite the recent financial market turmoil.
Oil’s gains picked up momentum on Wednesday after the U.S. dollar hit another low against the euro at $1.4666 with global credit market turmoil keeping expectations of another Federal Reserve rate cut alive.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, from which more than a third of the world’s oil comes, has agreed to raise production by 500,000 barrels a day from 1 November, but has been unwilling to increase production further, blaming speculators and politics for the recent price rally.
Analysts have also said that big options positions in the $90 to $100 range may also be forcing investors to cover short positions, contributing to the rise toward an all-time inflation-adjusted high of $101.70 during April 1980. “We see a number of speculative and technical factors as critical drivers of the latest oil price rally,” Jan Stuart, UBS oil analyst, said in a note.
On a more positive note, BP said its Texas refinery would reach near full output at the end of 2007. The refinery has been undergoing a $1 billion renewal programme, which has taken more than two years. It has been running under capacity following a blast that killed 15 people in March 2005.
The company said the Texas plant was on track to reach its full-capacity target of 437,000 barrels a day in the first half of 2008.
Stock markets across Asia were mixed in late trade on Wednesday. The Hang Seng held up as oil majors gained but benchmarks in Japan, South Korea and Singapore turned lower, on fears that the high oil price would depress US consumer spending power.
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Now if only US citizens were paying some $10.00 a gallon to fill their SUVs, the full impact of the Bush Administration's disasterous foreign policies would be brought home to them. Were oil to be priced in euros rather than dollars, the petrodollar cycle would be broken, as would be the dollar's role as reserve currency. Then, "Welcome to the real world."
Andrew Milner, Yokohama, Japan
Perhaps Iâm being really dense, but if oil is nearing $100 per barrel; why is this not being off set by the exchange rate of $2 -£1?
Stephen K, Cambridge, England
its been well over £1.06 for ages in shetland and it comes in here
sid, scalloway, shetland
With Unleaded at £4.91 per gallon mostly made up from Tax, we should be rioting on the streets. Darling in a very short time has shown how bad a chancellor he is, by not reading the market and increasing Tax last month he will cause a recession. His part in the Northern Rock fiasco is also showing us that Brown economic miracle was all smoke and mirrors.
Fact Broon sold our Gold reserves at $276 and Gold today is $ 840 in my book he has lost more than the Tories on Black Wednesday. The Tories should be hammering them and if the government wants to avoid riots on the streets as recession holds and attacks on immigrants happen then they should reduce the Tax take immediately.
Broons incompetence is coming home to roost; he has not delivered boom and bust, just the bust. In addition, if he really thinks lowering house prices by building one a minute will save him, I would remind him that the economy has been due to House price inflation fuelling the economy via retail sales
Purps, Chelmsford, England
With this latest increase in the price of oil: why do we not see or hear what the government is spending all this extra revenue on in the UK. After all they must be making some money out of North Sea oil?
I spend a lot of my time in Oman and every where I look one can see the government using the extra money they are making for the good of the people.
David A Lockwood, York, England
There is a very good website to look at:
www.wolfatthedoor.org.uk. beginners guide to Peak Oil.
This hike is very bad for the planet as poor countries will be encouraged to grow bio fuels at the expense of growing crops for food. There appears to be a series of events that must cause great concern to all of the large world economies,and with expensive oil fuelling our power stations etc and driving everyother force that keeps our communities mobile is a very bitter blow to our wallets!! The knock on effects are being felt slowly now, and i feel everyone can try to economise and not waste anything unecessarily. I am sure that even oil driven economies will have to rein themselves in, but I pity the poorer countries and their economic state of affairs.
mrs maggie snook, wool , wareham, Dorset