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The price of crude oil rose to a record of $86 a barrel yesterday amid fears that a surge in the price of traded commodities is storing up a winter squeeze on consumer wallets and new risks of inflation for the global economy.
Gold, a traditional inflation hedge, jumped to a 28-year peak of $759.90 a troy ounce and dragged platinum with it in a scramble by speculators for safe havens. The precious white metal rose to a record $1,428 an ounce.
The real cost of a barrel of oil, which reached $86.13 yesterday on the Nymex exchange in New York, is edging closer to its peak in 1980, when the price, adjusted for inflation, reached $90 a barrel after the Iranian revolution.
The surge yesterday stemmed from reports that the Turkish Government might send troops into northern Iraq, raising the prospect of more violence and cuts in Iraqi oil exports. The Turkish Government asked permission of its parliament to send forces to pursue rebels who belong to PKK, a militia group seeking independence for Kurds within Turkey.
Higher crude prices should soon feed through into the price of motor fuel but the effect in Britain has been mitigated by the weakness of the dollar, the currency in which oil and wholesale petrol is traded. Unleaded petrol is averaging 97.58p a litre across the UK, with diesel costing 99.56p, within reach of the record high set last week.
The high cost of petrol means that motorists are spending nearly £8 million more a day to fill their tanks than at the start of the year.
Economists gave warning that soaring energy costs could delay any further reduction in interest rates by the Bank of England. George Buckley, the chief UK economist for Deutsche Bank, suggested that economic growth could be hit if oil continued to rise.
He said: “This is going to affect companies who find it more difficult to invest and it will also affect the high street, as households simply won’t have as much money to spend.”
Householders are being hit from all sides as the cost of globally traded commodities begins to push up basic household necessities, even as mortgage rate increases add to monthly bills. As the petrol price climbs, the cost of a basket of groceries is gaining ground, with price increases in milk, eggs, bread and pork.
Food manufacturers, such as Associated British Foods and Danone, of France, have signalled that price increases are on the way because of turmoil in international markets. Droughts in the southern hemisphere have left the world short of vital food commodities, such as wheat and skimmed-milk powder, and a scramble by governments to build up buffer stocks has caused the price of grain and powdered milk to soar.
The price of coal is also gaining ground because of a burgeoning demand for fuel from Chinese power stations, logistical bottlenecks in Australia and a shortage of bulk carriers to transport the dirty fuel.
The cost of a tonne of coal delivered in Rotterdam has risen 50 per cent since the beginning of the year, squeezing the margins of power generators and raising the prospect of higher electricity bills if the winter proves to be less than balmy.
Underlying the surge in the price of oil is a continuing concern about declining inventories of crude oil in Western countries. Crude stocks in the United States fell, as reported last week by the US Energy Information Administration, confounding expectations of an increase.
Stock levels have continued to fall in OECD countries, a consequence of a succession of Opec cuts over the past year, only partially reversed by a decision last month by the oil producers’ cartel to increase output by 500,000 barrels a day.
Evidence that dearer fuel is curbing demand has been slow to emerge and has only just begun to feed into official US figures of petrol consumption, which show a decline in demand growth from the beginning of this year.
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I like the point about the weakenned US dollar offseting any rise in terms of pounds or the euro- perhaps we should be measuring any rise in terms of pounds.
If the dollar continues to weaken in the long term lets hope OPEC wll start pricing in euros.
As for inflation, I think the BOE will have to keep interests rates high enough to maintain our own exchange rate so that we do not import inflation with our record current account deficit.
Steve Marchant, Torquay, Devon
The next move for the BOE maybe to raise interest rates in order to meet the so-called inflation target.The experts said rates have peaked,are they right?Winter is coming,it could be quite chilly.
Stephen Hulton, Eure, France
Demand has hardly faltered despite the rise from 40$/bbl to over 85$/bbl. It's still very affordable. We still have just as many traffic jams, just as many flights, just as much wastage of energy.
The price will of course go well above $100 in due course, probably onwards to $200. It has to, it's the simplest example of supply and demand there is. Everyone wants it, and there is less and less of it.
The only way the average person can protect himself against this is to buy oil or commodity shares.
ab, quimper, france
Andy,
I agree, Matt Savinar opened up my eyes to a lot of home truths.
Jay T, Reading, UK
I don't really understand how a piece about the ever rising oil price can fail to mention the concept of 'peak oil'. Its time you journalists did some proper research in order to publicise the alarming background to the looming oil crisis.
Andy Hamilton, Nelson, New Zealand
Keep it coming, the higher the price, the better I like it.
m wilson, bidache, france