Carl Mortished, International Business Editor
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Another surge in the price of coal is feared after the operator of the world’s biggest coal export terminal cut the number of ships permitted to load at the port of Newcastle in Australia.
Queues at the port, which exports coal from the Hunter Valley mines, reached a peak of 79 vessels in the summer as Asian power producers scrambled to fill up in anticipation of coal shortages this winter. To reduce congestion, last week the port operator cut export allocations for the fourth quarter of this year by two million tonnes.
The price of coal in Europe has risen by 50 per cent this year, bearing down on the profit margins of big coal users, such as cement-makers and power generators. Over the past year the share price of Drax, owner of Britain’s biggest coal-fired electricity generator, has fallen from a high of 929p in August last year to 615p. In Europe, a spot cargo of South African coal was reported to have changed hands at $115 per tonne as a European utilty sought to make good a delayed shipment.
“So many utilities and cement companies are looking,” one trader said.
“They will pay, but they are desperate that no one finds out.”
Meanwhile, Japanese and Chinese utilities are scrambling to secure supplies. Last week, several Japanese power companies agreed to pay an Australian mining unit of Peabody Energy $68 per tonne for fourth-quarter coal, a 25 per cent increase on the price in the early part of the year.
Negotiations for 2008 coal are continuing between the Japanese utilities and Australian producers, such as Xstrata and Rio Tinto, but the expectation is that prices will rise.
The surging coal price has several causes, analysts and energy traders say. Soaring energy demand is one – coal hitherto has been a cheap, albeit a dirty and carbon-rich, alternative to oil and natural gas. When oil and natural gas prices are high, power companies switch to coal to keep their electricity competitive. The high oil price has boosted global demand for coal, which rose 4.5 per cent last year.
Meanwhile, China continues to consume more. It is the world’s biggest coal producer, but the People’s Republic became for the first time this year a net coal importer and its ravenous demand for energy will continue to boost prices in Australia.
The bigger problem is infrastructure bottlenecks. According to Dresdner Kleinwort Benson, China is building 70 gigawatts of coal-fired power generation every year and the world has not enough port or shipping capacity to handle the demand.
Waratah Port Services, which operates the Newcastle port terminal, has already reduced output by four million tonnes this year.
“Port infrastructure is no longer adequate to deal with rising volumes - thus driving up freight rates,” Ajay Patel, a Dresdner Kleinwort Benson commodity analyst, said. A shortage of ships has pushed European prices to record levels.
The price of coal delivered at Rotterdam surged past $100 per tonne at the end of September, as the cost of moving cargoes of fuel escalated to levels never before seen. The Baltic Exchange’s dry freight index continues to break records almost every week, having crashed through the 9,000 level at the end of September. In the space of a month, it rose 2,000 points, reflecting surging demand from transporters of minerals – coal and iron ore – as well as grain.
The energy squeeze, which is keeping coal buoyant, has generated demand for newer products, such as biofuels, adding further pressure on the market for vessels that can move large cargoes of commodities.
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Climate change? Wind and solar? I think its time some people woke up and smelt the hydrocarbons. The high price of coal is good news for Britain as we have a great deal of the stuff, it just become uneconomical to mine (i.e. cheaper to get it elsewhere). Theres no firm scientific evidence to prove increased co2 has any significant effect on climate, in fact theres more to suggest it doesn't. I'm not one to give way to mass hysteria, so I say lets get our people employed, and that coal exported, and give our economy a boost.
Jon, Nottingham,
The UK government through the Energy Technologies Institute and British industry with firms like Greenbank Terotech Ltd in Derbyshire with its innovative flow distribution technology which allows coal fired power generators to significantly improve the efficiency of their boilers points to a viable future for coal.
Major strides have been with clean coal technology such that it is worthy of remaining part of the UK's energy mix alongside gas, nuclear and renewables.
Readers comments like Vanessa from Sydney saddens me that they are so blinkered to the new technology coming from UK universities and industry. Perhaps she would prefer to buy from oil from our "friends" in Iran and Iraq or gas from Russia and sleep easier instead ????
Thomas Davies, Sandown, Kent
Our atmosphere is already overflowing with CO2 so we have to reduce the use of coal. The limiting factor is on the sink side, not the resource side. Therefore it is good for our climate if coal exports from Newcastle are reduced. NASA climatologist James Hansen says that in the next 10 years global warming will get so bad that we'll have no other choice than to bulldoze old-style coal fired power plants. That's how urgent and serious the problem is. Read here:
http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2007/s1870955.htm
Matt, Epping,
Coal is the one energy commodity we in Britain have in plenty. Can one imagine if Japan, for instance, had that power source under their soil, theyâd have left it fallow? In the cause of global warming, by wasting our available investment capital on such futile alternatives as wind turbines or trusting Russia and the Middle East to supply our future energy needs - weâre facing a future energy shortage thatâll send we Britons back to the stone-age.
sean dunne, Louth,
If the world does not get over its' addiction to coal and fossil fuels then the human race will be joining the dinosaurs in extinction.
Climate change is real and coal is one of the biggest causes of climate change. Wake up world and switch to solar and wind before it really is too late.
In Australia, we are doing our best to phase out this antiquated mode of energy before climate change is irreversible.
Wake up Coal companies - either way, your days are numbered.
Vanessa Fraser, Sydney, Australia